A key congressional race in California will test progressives’ appeal in a Republican district

At first glance, a recent Democratic primary in California’s Central Valley was just another skirmish between the party’s progressive wing and its more moderate establishment.

This time, the contest was won by populist insurgent Randy Villegas. But what sets the outcome apart from similar primary battles is the stakes.

This wasn’t a fight over a safe Democratic seat. Villegas will be the standard bearer against Republican Rep. David Valadao, one of the most promising targets for Democrats desperate to retake the U.S. House majority and slow down President Donald Trump.

The November race will test the theory, popular on the left, that voters will flock to progressive, anti-establishment candidates even in places that have traditionally favored Republicans.

“A populist message isn’t just for blue districts or certain parts of the country,” said Ravi Mangla, a spokesperson for the Working Families Party, one of the progressive groups that backed Villegas. “It can win anywhere people feel like politics is not working for them.”

“More than ever, voters across the political spectrum want candidates who are willing to stand up to power,” Mangla said.

The National Republican Congressional Committee dismissed Villegas’ chances, even though the state’s Democratic leaders recently redrew the district to make it easier to flip this year.

“Democrats know Villegas can’t beat Congressman David Valadao, as he embraces the same failed policies that have made California more expensive, less safe, and harder for working families in the Central Valley,” said spokesperson Christian Martinez.

Progressives want a shot in key races

The Villegas victory comes during an election season in which substantial parts of the Democratic base are rejecting the candidates that party bosses see as their best shot at winning power in Congress.

Graham Platner overwhelmingly won the Democratic Senate primary in Maine this week after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s preferred nominee, Gov. Janet Mills, dropped out with lackluster support weeks before the election.

A combat veteran and oyster farmer, Platner has never held elected office before, and he’s endured controversies over past relationships with women, inflammatory online posts and a since-covered tattoo recognized as a Nazi symbol.

In Michigan, Rep. Haley Stevens is entangled in a three-way contest for the Democratic Senate nomination against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed. The primary is Aug. 4, and El-Sayed recently scored a major endorsement from the United Auto Workers union, a political powerhouse in the state that is home to the U.S. auto industry.

And in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race, progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is in a fierce battle with U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, who is backed by labor unions, LGBTQ groups and moderate Democrats ahead of the primary on Aug. 11.

Another test will come on June 30 in Colorado, where progressive Manny Rutinel faces establishment-backed Shannon Bird in the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. Like Valadao, Evans is a top target for Democrats. And like the California race, the Colorado contest hinges on questions about who is most electable in November.

Democrats try to unite around their nominee

Valadao finished first and Villegas second in California’s primary, in which the top two candidates move on to the general election.

When early voting began about a month before the primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee took the unusual step of publicly signaling support for Jasmeet Bains, a doctor and state Assembly member who had lined up support from a bevy of elected officials, unions and health care groups.

“Dr. Jasmeet Bains has fought on the frontlines of health crises and built a track record of delivering for the Central Valley,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement at the time. She did not criticize Villegas, but the public support for his rival was a powerful signal to Democratic donors and activists that the party believed Bains was a stronger candidate. Congressional leaders and the party apparatus they control rarely wade overtly into contested primaries for open seats.

The decision to back Bains infuriated many on the left, who saw it as another example of Washington insiders being out of touch with both the Democratic base and disaffected voters who helped power Trump’s victories.

“I think the moderates are wrong. People don’t want status quo, pro-corporate candidates,” said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, a progressive group that grew out of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign. “They want people who are going to shake things up.”

Now that Villegas won, Democrats in Washington now insist he’s a strong candidate who is well-positioned to defeat Valadao. They point to the grassroots support that propelled him through the primary and the combined 59% that the Democrats got in the primary, significantly more than the 41% who voted for Valadao, though many more voters will turn out for the general election.

If the snub created tension between Villegas and his party, both sides buried it by Wednesday and presented a united front. California members of Congress, including some who had backed Bains, issued effusive statements, and he was magnanimous in return.

“We’re all in to elect Randy and flip this seat,” said Anna Elsasser, a spokesperson for the DCCC, the arm of the Democratic Party focused on winning House races. The district is “a must-win seat for the House majority, and we are confident in winning with Randy as the Democratic nominee,” she added.