Another blue wave? Meet the Democrat trying to make it happen and the Republican trying to stop her

ATLANTA (AP) — Even though Republican Brian Jack is only a first-term congressman, he has become a regular in the Oval Office these days. As the top recruiter for his party’s House campaign team, the Georgia native is often reviewing polling and biographies of potential candidates with President Donald Trump.

Lauren Underwood, an Illinois congresswoman who does similar work for Democrats, has no such West Wing invitation. She is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue working the phones to identify and counsel candidates she hopes can erase Republicans’ slim House majority in November’s midterm elections.

Although they have little in common, both lawmakers were forged by the lessons of 2018, when Democrats flipped dozens of Republican-held seats to turn the rest of Trump’s first term into a political crucible. Underwood won her race that year, and Jack became responsible for dealing with the fallout when he became White House political director a few months later.

Underwood wants a repeat in 2026, and Jack is trying to stand in her way.

For Republicans, that means going all-in on Trump and his “Make American Great Again” agenda, gambling that durable enthusiasm from his base will overcome broader dissatisfaction with his leadership.

“You’re seeing a lot of people very inspired by President Trump,” Jack said about his party’s House candidates. “They’re excited to serve in this body alongside him and the White House. That’s been a tool and a motivating factor for so many people who want to run.”

Underwood said she is looking for candidates with community involvement and public service beyond Washington politics. A registered nurse, she was a health care advocate before she ran in 2018, joining a cadre of Democratic newcomers that included military veterans, educators, activists and business owners.

“It’s about having ordinary Americans step up” in a way that “draws a sharp contrast with the actions of these MAGA extremists,” she said.

Trump’s involvement is more direct than in 2018

It’s routine for a president’s party to lose ground in Congress during the first midterms after winning the White House. Trump, however, is in the rare position to test that historical trend with a second, nonconsecutive presidency.

Neither party has released its list of favored candidates in targeted seats. But Jack said Oval Office discussions with Trump focus on who can align with the White House in a way that can win.

Jack highlighted former Maine Gov. Paul LePage as an example. LePage is running in a GOP-leaning district where Democrats face the challenge of replacing Rep. Jared Golden, another member of the party’s 2018 class who recently announced he would not seek reelection.

Trump’s involvement contrasts with 2017, when he was not as tied to House leadership, including then-Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., on details of the midterm campaign as he is now. Jack, who got his start with Trump by managing delegate outreach before the 2016 convention, was White House deputy political director during that span. He was promoted to political director after the 2018 losses.

Jack continued advising the president, especially on his endorsements, between Trump’s 2021 departure for the White House and Jack’s own congressional campaign in 2024. He described Trump as intimately involved in recruitment decisions and open to advice on his endorsements since those 2018 defeats.

Trump loyalty will not always be easy to measure, especially in first-time candidates.

But Jack said Republicans have quality options. He pointed to Albuquerque, New Mexico, where Republicans could have a competitive primary that includes Jose Orozco, a former Drug Enforcement Administration contractor, and Greg Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer.

“They both have very inspirational stories,” Jack said.

Orozco has asked voters to “give President Trump an ally in Congress.” Cunningham did not focus on Trump in his campaign launch.

Democrats describe a district-by-district approach

Underwood said Democrats are replicating a district-by-district approach of 2018. Recruiting in the Trump era, she said, is more often about talking with prospective candidates who raised their hands to run than about coaxing them into politics.

The notable numbers of women and combat veterans in her first-term class, Underwood said, was not a top-down strategy but the result of candidates who saw Trump and Republicans as threats to functional government and democracy.

Underwood, who at age 32 became the youngest Black woman ever to serve in Congress after her 2018 election, recalled that Republicans’ efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act spurred her to run because of her training as a nurse. She shares those experiences with recruits, sharpening how they can connect their ideas and background to the job of a congressperson.

Underwood said she also regularly fields questions about serving in an era of political violence and about the day-to-day balance of being a candidate or congressperson, especially from recruits who have children.

National security is again a draw for Democrat. Former Marine JoAnna Mendoza is running in a largely rural southern Arizona seat and former Rep. Elaine Luria, another Underwood classmate and former naval officer, is running again in Virginia after losing her seat in 2022. Luria was among the lead House investigators of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Underwood said there are clear parallels to 2018, when successful congressional candidates included Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot who is now New Jersey governor-elect; Jason Crow, a former Army Ranger who is one of her recruiting co-chairs; and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA case officer.

Democrats also noted the need to find candidates who reflect a district’s cultural sensibilities, meaning a candidate who can withstand Republican accusations that national Democrats are out of touch with many voters.

For instance, in a South Texas district, the top potential Democratic challenger is Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. The five-time Latin Grammy nominee has criticized progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York for using the term “Latinx” rather than “Latino” or “Latina.”

Trump’s gerrymandering fight causes uncertainty

Mid-decade gerrymandering, mostly in Republican-led states at Trump’s behest, leaves the state of the 435 House districts in flux. Even with the changes, Democrats identify more than three dozen Republican-held seats they believe will be competitive. Republicans counter with about two dozen Democratic-held seats they think can flip.

In the Southwest, Democrats are targeting all three Republican seats in Arizona. The GOP is aiming at three Democratic seats in Nevada. From the Midwest across to the Philadelphia suburbs, Democrats want to flip two Iowa seats, two in Wisconsin three in Michigan, three in Ohio and four in Pennsylvania. Republicans are targeting four Democratic seats in New York.

Nearly all Democratic targets were within a 15-percentage point margin in 2024, many of them much closer than that. Democratic candidates in 2025 special elections typically managed double-digit gains compared with Trump’s margins in 2024, including a recent special House election in Tennessee, when Democrats came within 9 points in a district Trump won by 22 points.

“It’s the same kind of shifts that we saw in 2017 before the 2018 wins,” said Meredith Kelly, a top official at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during Trump’s first presidency. “So, it becomes a mix of that national environment and finding the right candidates who fit a district and can take advantage.”