AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Indiana’s state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is waging a retribution campaign against some fellow Republicans in Tuesday’s primary in Indiana. Seven GOP state senators who blocked his push to redraw the state’s congressional districts now face primary challengers endorsed by him.

In a series of social media posts, Trump has lobbed various insults at the incumbents, calling them incompetent, RINOs — Republicans in name only — or losers.

In 2025, Trump urged Republicans in several states to redraw their congressional maps to help the party maintain control of the narrowly divided U.S. House. Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio answered the call, but the effort to create new GOP seats in Indiana failed when more than half the state’s Republican senators sided with Democrats to defeat the plan backed by Trump. Eight of those state senators are up for reelection in 2026, and Trump has targeted all but one for defeat.

Voter-approved maps favoring Democrats in California and Virginia have offset some expected Republican gains in other states, but a new plan in Florida, as well as last week’s Supreme Court decision to weaken the Voting Rights Act of 1965, have given Republicans a boost in their effort to reshape the electoral landscape heading into November.

The Trump-targeted Indiana state senators all represent districts he carried in 2024, mostly by 20 percentage points or more. The most competitive was District 1, near Lake Michigan and just southeast of Chicago. Trump won with about 53% of the vote and a margin of about 7 percentage points over Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris. His best performance of the seven targeted districts was in District 19, on the Ohio border, where he received about 68% of the vote and a margin of about 39 percentage points.

Only one of the incumbents, state Sen. Spencer Deery of District 23, faced a contested primary in 2022. He won with about 31% of the vote against a four-candidate field that included Paula Copenhaver, Trump’s pick to oust him this year. Another Trump-targeted incumbent, state Sen. Greg Goode of District 38, filled a vacant seat in 2023 and has not previously faced a full districtwide election.

Half of Indiana’s 50 state Senate seats and all 100 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers.

Indiana voters will also choose nominees for the U.S. House under the existing boundaries, although none of the state’s nine seats is expected to play a key role in the effort to win control of the chamber in November.

Among the notable contests is the Democratic primary in the 7th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Andre Carson faces three challengers in his bid for renomination to a 10th full term. George Hornedo is an attorney and political consultant. Destiny Wells is an attorney, an Army Reserve lieutenant colonel and the 2024 nominee for state attorney general. Denise Paul Hatch, a former Center Township constable, is appealing her 2024 felony conviction for official misconduct.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in Indiana, but the losing candidate may request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin. The costs may be partly or fully refunded depending on the results of the recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

All polls in Indiana close at 6 p.m. local time. Polls in most of the state are in the Eastern time zone and close at 6 p.m. ET, but some polls are in Central time and close at 7 p.m. ET. State Senate District 1 is the only Trump-targeted seat where polls close at 7 p.m. ET. The last polls in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 8th Congressional Districts also close at 7 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for the U.S. House, the state Senate and the state House. Republican incumbents face Trump-backed challengers in state Senate Districts 1, 11, 19, 21, 23, 38 and 41.

Who gets to vote?

Indiana does not register voters by party, so registered voters are asked to select the primary ballot for the party of their choice. Voter ID is required. An unusual provision in state law requires voters in a party’s primary to have voted for a majority of that party’s candidates in the last general election or plan to do so in the next general election if they didn’t vote in the last election. This is essentially unenforceable, but voters whose party affiliations are challenged at the polls must vote by provisional ballot unless they sign an affidavit aligning themselves with the party.

How many voters are there?

There were about 4.8 million registered voters in Indiana as of the November 2024 general election. Registration totals in the state’s nine congressional districts ranged from about 442,000 in District 7 to about 505,000 in District 5.

How many people usually vote?

Most of the targeted state Senate races did not have a contested primary in 2022, but those that had a contested general election ranged from about 32,000 to 45,000 total votes.

About 34,000 votes were cast in the 7th Congressional District Democratic primary in 2024, the most of any district. That was about 8% of registered voters. About 25,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 29% of the 2024 primary vote was cast before Election Day.

As of Friday, more than 175,000 ballots had already been cast in the Democratic and Republican primaries combined.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Absentee ballots in Indiana may be processed once they are received, and counting may begin before the polls close on Election Day. This leads to relatively quick counting of absentee ballots. Elections officials from more than three-quarters of Indiana’s 92 counties have indicated they tend to include all or nearly all the results of absentee and early voting in their first vote update of the night.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In 2024, the AP first reported results in the Republican presidential primary at 6:06 p.m. ET, or six minutes after polls closed in most of the state. The last vote update of the night was at 11:34 p.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The last election night vote update for each congressional district with a contested primary was much earlier. The earliest was 9:10 p.m. ET in the 5th Congressional District, and the latest was 11:34 p.m. ET in the 1st District. The last vote update of the night in the 7th District Democratic primary was at 10:04 p.m. ET.

The first vote result in the state Senate District 23 primary was at 6:59 p.m. ET, almost an hour after polls closed in the district. The last update was at 11:11 p.m. ET, with more than 99% of the total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 182 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.