AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New York’s state primary

NEW YORK (AP) — Democratic nomination contests for New York’s seats in the closely divided U.S. House take center stage Tuesday in a state primary where relatively few of the state’s top officeholders will appear on the ballot.

One incumbent who is not up for election but has emerged as a key figure in the campaign is New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who is looking to shape the city’s congressional delegation through a series of endorsements, including for challengers to two Democratic incumbents.

New York is expected to play a key role in deciding control of the chamber in November.

In New York City, competitive primaries in traditionally safe Democratic seats could help define the party’s identity in the Empire State and beyond.

In the 10th Congressional District in Lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Golden faces a strong challenge from former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who has endorsements from Mamdani and Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. Mamdani and Lander are former mayoral campaign rivals.

In the 13th Congressional District in Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, five-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat faces three primary challengers, including doctoral student and political organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier, who also has Mamdani’s backing.

In the 7th Congressional District straddling Brooklyn and Queens, retiring 17-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Nydia Velázquez has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, but he faces a tough race against state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, who has endorsements from Mamdani and Sanders.

In Manhattan’s 12th Congressional District, eight Democrats are running to succeed retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler. The top contenders include state Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, attorney, Donald Trump critic and former Republican George Conway, and Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg. Conway leads the field in fundraising, but Lasher boasts endorsements from Nadler, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and former independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

North of the city in the 17th Congressional District, five Democrats hope to unseat two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, who is unopposed for the nomination. The field includes former White House counterterrorism official and Army combat veteran Cait Conley, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson and Tarrytown Village Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley. Conley leads in fundraising and available cash as of early June, followed by Davidson, with Phillips-Staley a distant third.

This swing district in the northern suburbs of New York City is among the top seats Democrats hope to flip. Democrat Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district in 2024. Her strongest showing was in Westchester County, the largest of the district’s four counties and the closest to New York City. Trump carried Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess counties with double-digit leads.

On Long Island, vulnerable Democratic freshmen Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen are defending their seats in the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts, respectively. Both face contested primaries.

In the massive 21st Congressional District in upstate New York, Republican U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is not seeking a seventh term following her aborted run for governor and her withdrawn nomination for United Nations Ambassador. State Assemblyman Robert Smullen has the backing of local party officials to replace her, while business owner Anthony Constantino has an endorsement from Trump.

The only statewide contest at stake on Tuesday is the Democratic primary for state comptroller, where the five-term incumbent, Tom DiNapoli, faces his first-ever primary challenge after almost 20 years in office.

Hochul and state Attorney General Letitia James are running for reelection, but they are unopposed for their party’s nominations and do not appear on primary ballots, as is the case for their Republican opponents, Bruce Blakeman and Saritha Komatireddy. Under New York election law, primaries are not held in contests where only one candidate seeks the nomination.

Voters will also decide contested primaries for state Senate and state Assembly. All 63 state Senate and 150 state Assembly seats are up for election in 2026. Democrats hold about 2-to-1 majorities over Republicans in both chambers.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, state comptroller, state Senate and state Assembly.

Who gets to vote?

Voters registered with a political party may participate only in their own party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

How many voters are there?

As of Feb. 20, there were about 13.4 million registered voters in New York, including about 6.4 million registered Democrats, about 3 million registered Republicans and about 3.4 million voters not affiliated with any party.

How many people actually vote?

About 899,000 Democratic primary votes and about 451,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2022 primaries for governor.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 20% of the 2022 primary vote was cast early in-person or by mail. The figure rose to about 39% in the 2024 presidential primaries.

As of Wednesday, about 107,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

New York counties and New York City tend to release all or almost all of their results from early voting and most of their results from mail voting in the first vote update of the night, usually before any results from in-person Election Day voting are released.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 9:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 3:11 a.m. ET with about 95% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

In New York, an automatic recount is triggered in races where more than 1 million votes are cast if the margin of victory is less than 5,000 votes. For smaller races, the automatic recount is triggered if the margin of victory is 20 votes or less or 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 133 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.