AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Carolina’s state primary runoff

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two of South Carolina’s top officeholders will compete one-on-one for the Republican nomination for governor in a primary runoff election on Tuesday. Voters will also select nominees for a handful of congressional races and other contests in which no candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 9 primary.

The Republican gubernatorial runoff features two-term Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and state Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson. President Donald Trump announced Friday he was endorsing both Evette and Wilson in the runoff.

“I can’t hurt one of them by only Endorsing the other,” he said in a Friday evening social media post. Trump had endorsed Evette in the primary over Wilson and five other candidates.

Trump’s picks have had a strong record at the ballot box in 2026, although some recent contests have shown that the president’s backing is not a guarantee of victory. The president’s picks for Iowa governor and Georgia governor lost their nomination bids, while his pick for Oklahoma governor was forced to a runoff after placing second in the June 16 primary.

Evette had Trump’s endorsement for the primary but also failed to win the nomination outright. She received 28.9% of the primary vote, narrowly outperforming Wilson, who received 26.1%. U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman placed third with 17.1%.

Evette’s best showing was in the Pee Dee region to the northeast along the North Carolina border and the Atlantic Ocean. The region was a strong area for Trump in 2024 and comprised about 15% of the total primary vote. Wilson’s strongest area was in the central core of the state, where Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris ran about even in 2024. The area includes Richland County, home to the state capital of Columbia, and reaches southwest to the Georgia border to include several of the state’s majority Black counties. Collectively, the area made up about 19% of the total primary vote.

A key battleground in the runoff will be the Upcountry region that includes some of the state’s most populous counties, including Greenville, Spartanburg and Anderson. Evette was the top vote-getter in this area, although the margin between first-place Evette and third-place Norman was less than 2 percentage points.

The eventual Republican nominee will face Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who won the nomination outright in the primary. Democrats last won the governorship in 1998.

The winner in November will succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who has endorsed Evette. Regardless of party, his replacement will likely play a key role in the early stages of the 2028 presidential race, with the state expected to once again hold critical first-in-the-South presidential primaries.

Placing a distant fifth in the gubernatorial primary was U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, a one-time staunch Trump ally who broke with the president in calling for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Both the Republican and Democratic primaries to replace her in the 1st Congressional District were forced to a runoff.

The Republican finalists are Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith. The Democratic finalists are former Hilton Head Island general counsel and U.S. Coast Guard veteran Mac Deford and retired Navy Vice Admiral and former Navy Reserve Chief Nancy Lacore. Honeycutt had a 4-point lead over Smith in the Republican primary, while Lacore outperformed Deford by nearly 8 points in the Democratic primary.

Trump carried the 1st District in 2024 with about 56%, compared to about 43% for Harris.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in primary runoffs for U.S. House, governor, attorney general, agriculture commissioner and state House.

Who gets to vote?

Voters who cast a ballot in a partisan primary on June 9 may only vote in the runoff of the same party as they did in the primary. In other words, Democratic primary voters may not vote in a Republican primary runoff or vice versa. Registered voters who did not participate in a party primary on June 9 may vote in the runoff for either party.

How many voters are there?

As of Saturday, there were about 3.4 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters in South Carolina do not register by party.

How many people actually vote?

About 473,000 voters cast ballots in the June 9 Republican primary for governor.

The total number of voters in a runoff tends to be smaller than in the preceding primary. In the last Republican primary runoff for governor in 2018, the number of voters fell about 7% from the primary. The drop-off was about 14% in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial runoff.

The two statewide primary runoffs in 2022 had much starker drops. The number of Republican runoff voters for state school superintendent fell by 47% compared to the primary. Total voters in the Democratic U.S. Senate runoff was 74% less than in the primary.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 52% of the Democratic primary vote and about 29% of the Republican primary vote in the June 9 primaries was cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Wednesday, halfway through the state’s two-day early voting period, about 37,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Nearly all of South Carolina’s 46 counties release all or almost all of their early in-person and mail voting results in the first vote update of the night, usually before releasing any results from in-person Election Day voting.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the June 9 primary, the AP first reported results at 7:20 p.m. ET, or 20 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 12:19 a.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

In South Carolina, recounts are automatic if the margin between the winning and losing candidates is 1% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 133 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.