Arizona governor’s race will test MAGA future for Republican Party

PRESCOTT VALLEY (AP) — “Let’s win not clash” said a sign posted outside a meeting of Arizona Republicans as candidates for governor tried to win over the party’s most ardent supporters inside.

The message channeled frustration from a decade of ideological infighting and eroding power in a state where Democrats have been gaining ground. But even as Republicans struggle to regain control, they may once again put forward a candidate in the general that’s favored by the party’s hard-right flank, a strategy that’s been a losing formula in recent statewide elections.

U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, a former U.S. House Freedom Caucus chairman representing a deep red district, is the frontrunner in the July primary because he carries the backing of President Donald Trump and the youth conservative organization Turning Point USA. His opponent is U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, a budget hawk who repeatedly has fended off Democrats in his competitive and wealthy purple district.

Whoever wins will face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who defeated Trump-backed Kari Lake four years ago and is now running for a second term.

Although some Republicans may want their party to rally behind a different type of candidate this time, longtime consultant Paul Bentz said it’s less likely.

“The folks that have bemoaned the takeover of the party, the people who wish to go back to the more traditional Republican ways, aren’t the folks that show up at the precinct committee meetings, aren’t the folks that go knock on doors and aren’t folks that have showed up at rallies,” Bentz said.

The Republican establishment has shifted in Arizona

Arizona has long been a crucial state for the Republican Party. It was home to Barry Goldwater, a longtime senator who became one of the nation’s most influential conservatives. He was succeeded by John McCain, who served in the Senate for more than three decades.

Although the state’s Republican Party has since been remade in Trump’s image, Trump’s disciples have had less luck than the president in statewide elections.

Trump won Arizona in 2016, lost in 2020, and won in 2024. But Arizona hasn’t elected a Republican member of the U.S. Senate since 2016, nor a Republican governor since 2018.

A reminder of the challenging balancing act came when housing developer Karrin Taylor Robson, who was rooted in the party’s pro-business, fiscally conservative wing dropped out of the primary earlier this month.

She lost to Lake in the primary in 2022, then tried to remake herself as a Trump-aligned culture warrior for her second attempt this year. Trump endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs.

Taylor Robson touted Trump’s backing on her campaign website in big capital letters. Even that wasn’t enough to convince Republican primary voters like Anna Peto, 66, a state party committeewoman from Pima County who attended the state party meeting last month and claimed Taylor Robson “bought” the president’s backing.

“I think she’s fake,” Peto said. She favored Biggs, describing him as an honest constitutionalist who follows through on promises.

Biggs says MAGA appeal will energize voters

For voters looking for a MAGA warrior, Biggs stands out. Marie Groves, 60, who attended one of his campaign events in Queen Creek last November, said he stands for “justice” in women’s sports and all human life “starting at conception.”

Standing centerstage with an American flag in the background, Biggs said he has the experience to steer the next round of redistricting in the GOP’s favor. He also vowed to overhaul the elections system, a reminder of his support for Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss to Joe Biden in 2020 and an animating issue on the right despite no evidence of widespread fraud or misconduct.

In an interview, Biggs said he could do a better job at energizing Republicans and right-leaning independents in the general election.

“My goal is to mobilize everybody,” he said.

He’s also touting support from Turning Point USA, a conservative youth group that helped elect Trump in 2024.

“Go Biggs or go home,” said Erika Kirk, who took over as the organization’s leader after last year’s assassination of her husband Charlie.

Four months before Charlie was killed, he endorsed Biggs, which remains meaningful for voters like Kendall Brittingham, a 32-year-old stay-at-home mother. She said it carries even more weight than Trump’s endorsement.

“That does give a lot of credence to Andy Biggs for me,” she said.

Schweikert says he can win in November

Unlike most Republicans, Schweikert said he doesn’t believe seeking Trump’s endorsement is necessary.

“Even some of the Biggs people, they’ll come up to me and say, ‘Uh, we know he can’t win the general election but he’s our friend,’” he said in an interview.

“I think the activists are tired of losing,” he added.

Schweikert has campaigned in Biggs’ district, including at a backyard gathering in Queen Creek where he leaned into his economic credentials to insist that he can balance a state budget.

Populist voters often have been crushed by inflation, he said, and getting economic policies right will make their lives better.

Brian Symes, a 56-year-old mortgage broker who has known Schweikert and Biggs for years, said that he is supporting Schweikert because he’s the only candidate that can unite the party.

“I think it would be very tough for Andy to win,” Symes said.