Democrats redrew California’s map to counter Trump. The primary tests whether it pays off for them

California Democrats persuaded voters to let them redraw the state’s congressional map so the party could potentially gain five seats in the U.S. House to counter GOP redistricting in Texas. Tuesday’s primary will be the first indication of whether that will pay off.

The state’s unusual primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, means Democrats have a chance of effectively missing out on a pickup in the San Diego suburbs, where Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s district was redrawn to give it a slight Democratic lean.

Issa retired, and a Republican San Diego County supervisor, Jim Desmond, stepped in to run. So did an avalanche of nine Democrats — so many that some fear the Democratic vote will be split among them, leaving Desmond and the only other GOP candidate, Jim O’Neil, as the top vote-getters. Under that scenario, Democrats would be locked out of the November general election.

“After millions of dollars and a nationwide effort to redraw these districts in response to Texas, Democrats being shut out would be a nightmare,” said Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official who is one of the Democrats running.

California has been the bright spot for Democrats in a redistricting war kicked off by President Donald Trump to help his party retain control of the House. After Texas redrew its map to make as many as five more seats winnable for the GOP, California voters allowed Democrats to suspend their state’s own independent redistricting commission and create a new map in retaliation.

But when Virginia Democrats tried to replicate that, they were blocked by their state Supreme Court. Meanwhile the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court gutted a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, letting Republicans eliminate some majority-Black congressional districts in the South.

Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert and investor Brandon Riker, who is financing his own campaign, are the most prominent Democrats in the race for the seat vacated by Issa. Many Democrats are optimistic their voters will coalesce around one candidate and set up a competitive election against Desmond in the fall.

The 48th district would not be the only competitive fall race for Democrats.

In the Central Valley, they redrew the seat held by Republican Rep. David Valadao to make it even more Democratic. Valadao is a survivor of several targeted Democratic campaigns and one of two remaining Republican House members who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

He’s expected to make it to the general election, so the primary will determine which Democrat faces him — state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains, a moderate backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or Randy Villegas, a political science professor at College of the Sequoias and a school board member who represents the party’s liberal wing.

The schism between establishment Democrats and a younger, insurgent progressive wing is a defining characteristic of many of this year’s primaries.

In a safe Democratic district in San Francisco, Scott Wiener, a state lawmaker and former member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, is considered likely to make the November race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The suspense is over whether he will face Saikat Charkrabati, a wealthy former technology entrepreneur who supported Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s insurgent primary in 2018, or Supervisor Connie Chan, who was endorsed by Pelosi.

In Sacramento, city council member Mai Vang is challenging 81-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui, who succeeded her late husband after his death in 2005.

Rep. Brad Sherman, whose Southern California district stretches from the San Fernando Valley to Malibu, is being challenged by Democrat Jake Levine, a 42-year-old lawyer who argues that it is time to move on from the 15-term congressman.

And in a redrawn district that stretches from Napa Valley into conservative Northern California farming communities, 14-term Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson has drawn a younger challenger, former venture capitalist Eric Jones.

California’s congressional primaries also will determine the fate of Republicans targeted in the Democratic redraw.

In Southern California, sitting Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim, were drawn into the same conservative district and are battling over their pro-Trump credentials.

In the Sacramento suburbs, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP to become an independent and a critic of partisan gerrymandering, hopes to survive in one of the two Democratic-leaning districts where his more conservative district’s voters were scattered.

Meanwhile in the San Francisco suburbs, six Democrats and two Republicans are running for the seat formerly held by Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned and ended his gubernatorial bid amid sexual harassment allegations. The top two vote-getters advance to the November ballot to fill the seat starting in 2027, while a special election will be held June 18 for the remainder of Swalwell’s current term.