Democrats won back support from five key groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024: The AP Voter Poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic candidates made up significant ground among key demographic groups in the 2026 midterms, according to The AP Voter Poll, reversing many of the gains President Donald Trump made with the traditional Democratic coalition in the 2024 presidential election.

The AP Voter Poll, a sweeping survey of more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states, showed that young voters swung sharply left. Democratic candidates’ performance among voters under 30 this year far exceeded the support this group gave Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 AP VoteCast survey.

Hispanic voters, who shifted toward Trump in 2024 as well, moved toward Democrats this year, as did Black voters – particularly Black men. Many Moderates— who overwhelmingly said Congress was not doing enough to put checks and balances on the presidency — backed Democratic candidates nationally and were important for Democratic victories in several key Senate races.

And as most voters said inflation had caused them and their family at least “moderate” hardship over the past year, voters with a 2025 household income of less than $50,000 also shifted away from Republicans, compared to 2024.

Here is how five key demographic groups moved in the 2026 election, according to The AP Voter Poll:

Voters under 30 swung toward the Democratic Party

After relatively high support for Trump in the 2024 election, young voters snapped back toward the Democratic Party in this year’s midterms.

The AP Voter Poll showed about 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationally said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while about 3 in 10 said they voted for the Republican. That was a dramatic shift from 2024, when the youngest voters were roughly split between Trump and Harris.

Most first-time midterm voters, who skew younger, also mostly supported the Democratic candidate.

Both young voters and first-time voters made up a fairly small share of voters. Only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 national electorate are under 30, for instance, which limited the impact of the shift.

But young voters’ displeasure with the country and its leadership was clear. About half of young voters said they were “angry” about the way things were going in the country today, compared with only about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. And about 6 in 10 voters under 30 said one reason for their vote for the U.S. House was to express opposition to Trump, compared to about half of voters ages 30-44, and about 4 in 10 voters ages 45 and older.

Young voters shifted toward the Democrats in each of the Senate races where the Democratic Party picked up a seat, including in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina.

Republicans lost ground with Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas

Republicans appeared to lose most — if not all — of Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters in 2024.

Only about one-third of Hispanic voters say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally say they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race.

This shift was evident in the Texas Senate race that Democrat James Talarico won over Republican Ken Paxton. The AP Voter Poll showed roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters in the Texas Senate race supported Talarico, while only about 3 in 10 voted for Paxton. The group was more closely split between Trump and Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to AP VoteCast.

And even in the Florida Senate race, where Republican Sen. Ashley Moody managed to narrowly win reelection, less than half of Hispanic voters supported Moody, while Trump definitively won this group two years earlier.

Republican inroads with Black voters appear fleeting

Black voters, particularly Black men, were another group where Trump’s 2024 gains didn’t stick.

Only about 1 in 10 Black men voters nationally backed the Republican candidate in their local U.S. House race, down from the roughly one-quarter who supported Trump in the last presidential election, according to AP VoteCast. About 9 in 10 Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from the roughly 8 in 10 who cast their ballot for Harris.

These shifts were particularly important in some major races. Black men shifted significantly in the Georgia race for governor, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected as a governor. About 9 in 10 Black men voted for Bottoms, according to The AP Voter Poll. Only about three-quarters supported Harris in 2024.

About 9 in 10 Black women supported Bottoms, roughly the same share that supported Harris.

Republican Byron Donalds, who was elected Florida’s first Black governor, did not have the same level of success with Black voters. About one-quarter of Black men in the state voted for Donalds over Democrat David Jolly, while only about 1 in 10 Black women supported Donalds.

Democrats increased their support with moderate voters

Democrats increased their support with moderate voters, particularly in key Senate races where Democrats flipped Republican-held seats.

Roughly two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, an uptick from the approximately 6 in 10 moderate voters who backed Harris.

A large majority of moderate voters, about 8 in 10, said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency, and a similarly high share said they had experienced at least a “moderate” hardship in the past year because of inflation.

Many Democratic candidates in key Senate upset races benefitted from significant moderate support. In Kansas, for instance, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 7 in 10 moderate voters, a substantial rise from the roughly half that Harris won in 2024.

In Iowa, there was a similar pattern as Democrat Josh Turek won about two-thirds of moderates, up from about half for Harris.

And in North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper won about three-quarters of moderates, improving on the slimmer majority that backed Harris.

Amid concern about costs, lower income voters move toward Democrats

In a year when economic concerns drove many voters’ choices, the AP Voter Poll found lower-income voters shifted toward the Democrats.

More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race. These voters were about evenly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 3 in 10 U.S. voters nationally report having a family income that falls under $50,000 each year.

The survey suggests that these voters were more likely than voters with a higher income to say they were concerned about the cost of food and groceries, gas prices and utilities. About 6 in 10 voters with a household income under $50,000 said the cost of living was “crucial” to their vote, compared to about half of voters who earned $50,000 or more.

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The AP Voter Poll is a survey of more than 100,000 voters conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The survey blends probability-based and non probability-based interviews with registered voters in all 50 states conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. A detailed methodology statement is available here. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.