Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff gambles on shutdown to save health subsidies as reelection bid looms

ATLANTA (AP) — There may be no rank-and-file Democratic senator with more at stake from the federal government shutdown than Georgia’s Jon Ossoff.

He is the party’s only senator who is seeking reelection next year in a state that Republican Donald Trump won in 2024, and any chance that Democrats may have in regaining Senate control depends on Ossoff holding the seat. As the second-longest shutdown in history drags on and Democrats insist on extending expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies beyond year’s end, more people in Georgia than most other states are likely to lose health insurance if the tax credits go away.

Ossoff, like other Democrats, is betting that stand is sound policy and good politics, too.

“Georgians don’t want their health insurance premiums to skyrocket, and they want the federal government reopened,” the first-term senator told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Tuesday. “It is in everyone’s interest to achieve those goals.”

Republicans see an opening if they can blame Ossoff and his party for the shutdown and the fallout on Americans.

Two Republican challengers, former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley and U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, held events outside Ossoff’s Atlanta office early in the shutdown, which began Oct. 1; Collins even delivered a symbolic pink slip to fire Ossoff. Meantime, Dooley and a third candidate, U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, call it the “Schumer-Ossoff shutdown,” giving Ossoff equal billing with the Senate’s Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer of New York.

Ossoff’s strategy: Focus on people whose health coverage is at risk. On Oct. 8, for example, he released a video with Georgians, including Himali Patel from a hospital bed, speaking directly into a camera. She told the AP on Monday that she goes to an Atlanta hospital at least three days a week to be treated for multiple ailments.

“When you have this many illnesses and you need this much care, having affordable care is extremely important,” Patel said.

Georgians at risk

About 1.5 million Georgians are insured this year through Democratic President Barack Obama’s health overhaul that was enacted in 2010. Because Georgia is one of 10 states that has not fully expanded Medicaid, as was envisioned under “Obamacare,” it has a larger population covered by the law’s marketplace policies than in Medicaid-expansion states.

“Particularly because we have such a high number of low-income folks in our marketplace, and they’re very price sensitive, we have a much higher risk of seeing those people drop out of the insurance pool,” said Laura Colbert, executive director of Georgians for a Healthy Future.

The group, which promotes expanded health coverage, projects that 340,000 Georgians could drop coverage because of higher prices. Georgia’s state-run marketplace released next year’s prices on Oct. 7, and big premium increases are already causing anxiety, said Kirk Lyman-Barner, an insurance agent in Americus.

“So far, everything is as bad or worse than what they expected,” Lyman-Barner said. He said low-income people who had been paying nothing or $10 per month are being quoted at $140 to $160 per month next year, while better-off people who had been paying less than $1,000 per month are being asked to pay $2,000.

Lyman-Barner, like many experts, said a solution for 2026 is “not very likely at this point” because it would take time to revise rates.

“It’s too late right now, and a lot of people are going to get out,” he said. “It’s going to be really hard to market to those folks and get them back in.”

The Republicans critical of Ossoff are not offering much in the way of alternatives. Carter and Dooley say Republicans should negotiate on subsidies after the government reopens. Collins did not respond to questions about his stance.

“Democrats are holding hostage our troops and our federal employees,” Carter told the AP. He said military families and other federal employees are hurting in his coastal district, and he is hoping they will remember it when they vote next year.

Dooley has said Democrats should have pushed earlier to preserve the subsidies. “Why are we bringing this up at the eleventh hour and holding the government hostage to get what we want?” Dooley asked.

Collins echoed Republican criticism of Ossoff for sending fundraising solicitations during the shutdown, saying the senator’s move “certainly doesn’t make it safer or more affordable for Georgians.”

Ossoff, seeking to blunt the pain felt by federal employees, voted with Republicans last week for a bill that would have paid federal employees and contractors who are required to work, as did Democrat Raphael Warnock, the state’s other senator.

Ossoff tries to maintain a reputation for working with Republicans, but he said Tuesday that the “political atmosphere in Washington right now is so poisonous that it’s proving very difficult.” He called for the House to go back into session and for “high level engagement” by Trump.

Democrats bet premium shock will weaken GOP

Democrats believe the shock of those premium increases will bolster their political position and weaken Republicans’ resolve, given polling that shows most Americans want the subsidies extended and there is enduring support for the health law. That is also true in the South, where large numbers of people are insured under the law.

One Georgia Republican who has wavered is U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Trump ally who on Tuesday criticized House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for keeping the chamber shut down. She said her party needs a plan to provide lower-cost insurance, even while she made clear that she opposes the health overhaul.

“Is it too much for me to ask what is my party’s plan to build the off ramp off of Obamacare onto price transparency, a competitive market, and affordable high quality care?” Greene posted on X. ”Nov. 1 is Saturday, starting open enrollment with already high premiums skyrocketing.”

Colbert, the health care advocate, said it is possible Georgians will blame their insurers rather than politicians of either party “because the health insurance company is a reliable villain.” But Ossoff said he thinks voters will fault Republicans, who hold power in Washington.

“Over the last month. I think it’s become very clear to Georgians that they are at risk of imminent and unnecessary skyrocketing health care costs,” he said.

But the costs of the shutdown are growing.

Food aid under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program will be cut off after Friday. Democrats say the Trump administration should use $5 billion in reserve funds to keep paying benefits. Head Start programs could lose funding for preschool programs. Airport delays could worsen as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration workers go unpaid.

Ossoff said that may leave the question of who is responsible up to voters.

“At some point, if Republicans in Congress and the president are simply unwilling to address the huge increases in health care costs for the American people, perhaps the public’s only recourse will be in next year’s election,” he said.