Government shutdown likely means no inflation data next month for 1st time in decades

WASHINGTON (AP) — The government shutdown now in its fourth week likely means there won’t be an inflation report next month for the first time in more than seven decades, the White House said Friday, leaving Wall Street and the Federal Reserve without crucial information about consumer prices.

“Because surveyors cannot deploy to the field, the White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history,” the Trump administration said in an email.

Some of the inflation data is collected electronically, but most is gathered in person by government employees who visit stores across the country. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the inflation report, has already reduced the data collected each month because the Trump administration’s hiring freeze left some cities without surveyors.

The announcement follows Friday’s release of September inflation data, which showed prices ticked higher but remained lower than many economists had expected. That report, which was delayed by nine days from its originally-scheduled release, was based on data that was collected before the shutdown began Oct. 1.

In past shutdowns the consumer price index — the government’s principal inflation measure — was compiled based on partial data. But it may be too late to gather even that level of information, the Labor Department said.

The disruption comes at a particularly challenging time for the Federal Reserve, the government agency tasked with keeping prices in check. It sharply raised its key short-term interest rate in 2022 and 2023 to combat the worst inflation spike in four decades.

Now Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee are slowly reducing the rate, as inflation has fallen sharply from its peak three years ago. In addition, the central bank is increasingly concerned that a faltering job market could tip the economy into recession. Reducing borrowing costs could boost spending and hiring.

Yet Powell and other Fed officials still want to keep a close eye on inflation. Powell has said that the tariffs could cause just a one-time increase in prices, rather than an ongoing inflationary trend. But they will want to closely monitor data to ensure that is the case.

The government is also not collecting the figures it will need to issue the next jobs report, which is scheduled for release Nov. 7. But once the government does reopen, the Bureau of Labor Statistics can ask businesses for their payroll data from the middle of October, the time of month when they usually ask for such figures. But it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to retroactively gather pricing data for this month.

When it comes to employment, the Fed can also look at alternative data such as a compilation of job postings by the employment website Indeed, or a measure of hiring prepared by payroll processor ADP. Yet there are few alternative sources for inflation data.