Inflation report lands amid spiking oil prices, rising interest rates and Fed on fence

WASHINGTON (AP) — Friday’s inflation report is shaping up to be among the most consequential in years.

Oil and gas prices have spiked again on the back of renewed combat in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve is considering whether to lift its short-term interest rate next week, with some officials saying Friday’s report could swing them either way. And longer-term interest rates jumped Thursday, partly because of fears of higher inflation, pushing mortgage borrowing costs higher.

The Trump administration is seeking to counter voter concerns about high prices and rising interest rates as the midterm elections approach. President Donald Trump on Wednesday promised $5,000 payments to every American adult if the GOP keeps a majority in Congress, a move that would require congressional approval and could stoke inflation. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stepped up buybacks of Treasury bonds in an effort to keep longer-term interest rates lower. Yet on Thursday the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached a nearly three-year high.

What’s coming Friday

On Friday, the government is expected to report that headline inflation ticked down last month, to 3.3% from 3.4%, according to data provider FactSet, though that is still above the Fed’s 2% target. And higher gas prices will likely push inflation back up next month when September’s data is released.

On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to have risen 0.4% from July to August, a pace that if it continues would keep inflation far above 2%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices are projected to have risen by just 0.2% from July to August and 2.4% last month from a year earlier. The year-over-year figure would be down slightly from 2.5% in July.

Yet the cooling in core prices may not sway the Fed or console many consumers. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has pushed up energy costs, with the nationwide average cost of a gallon of gas on Thursday jumping 7% from a month ago to $4.28. Gas prices on Labor Day were at a record high for that date, and diesel fuel prices have reached all-time highs.

Inflation as one-time shock, or something more

Many economists and Federal Reserve officials have long considered higher gas prices one of several “one-time” shocks that are lifting inflation, along with tariffs and surging investment in AI data centers. For months, the hope has been as that as the war against Iran wound down, and the effects of tariffs faded, inflation would grind lower.

Yet there are few signs of the Iran war cooling, and even Trump has said gas prices won’t retreat until after the midterm elections in November. And while Trump’s trade fight with Canada will impact a small number of imports, it is a reminder that tariffs remain a threat that could push up other costs.

“This is not one and done,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “It’s unclear when tensions in the Middle East are going to settle down. … This seems like it could be a prolonged disruption.”

While core prices are rising more slowly than overall prices, more expensive oil and gas could spread through more of the economy. Pricier jet fuel will likely push up air fares, and more expensive diesel will raise shipping costs, which could make groceries and other goods shipped by truck more expensive. On Thursday, a wholesale price report showed a jump in chemical prices, likely a result of more expensive oil.

What will the Federal Reserve do?

Federal Reserve policymakers are split on whether to hike at a meeting next week, so much so that differences of a few hundredths of a percentage point in Friday’s inflation report could determine whether the central bank boosts its benchmark interest rate or leaves it unchanged. The Fed, which is tasked with keeping inflation in check, typically lifts borrowing costs to slow spending and limit price increases.

Investors and analysts differ over whether the Fed will hike rates at their Sept. 15-16 meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh suggested he was leaning toward a rate hike in a high-profile speech two weeks ago, but he did not commit to doing so at a specific time.

And last Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller, echoing some other Fed officials, suggested that if Friday’s inflation report shows price increases cooling, then he would support keeping rates where they are. Waller is one of the 12 officials who vote on each Fed rate decision.

Waller’s heavy emphasis on August’s figures have raised the stakes for Friday’s report. If the monthly core figure rounds up to 0.3%, some Wall Street analysts expect the Fed would then hike rates. But if it rounded down to 0.2% or lower, then a hold could be more likely. If it is somewhere in between, it’s not clear what the Fed may do. One analyst called such considerations “ludicrous precision.”

For his part, Warsh doesn’t want to tip his hand about his next moves, which some economists say will make this kind of uncertainty more common before Fed meetings.