Iowa Democrats hoping to flip a US Senate seat are torn over which of 2 hopefuls has the best shot

AMES, Iowa (AP) — Iowa Democrats say they want to vote in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate primary for the candidate who gives the party its best chance to flip a Republican-held seat in November.

Some just haven’t decided which of the two state lawmakers in the race fits the bill.

“I am having a lot of trouble,” said Mike Lazere, a 65-year-old Democrat who always votes on Election Day.

State Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls are seeking the nomination for the seat held by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst in the state where Republicans have an advantage but Democrats think they could have a chance.

It means the primary choice carries high stakes for Iowa’s Democratic voters, who haven’t had many recent examples of successful statewide candidates to help guide their decision. The last Democrat to win federal office statewide was President Barack Obama in 2012. All six members of the federal delegation are Republicans, and the GOP has had a statehouse trifecta for nearly a decade. The most recent Democratic U.S. senator from Iowa, Tom Harkin, was elected in 2008 and retired from office six years later.

U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson is running for the GOP nomination, and a Republican-aligned political group has already pledged $29 million to defend the seat.

Turek and Wahls say the differences between them are clear, but voters still weighing their options disagree.

“They both have strong legislative records. They both have compelling stories. I think they both share my values,” Lazere said Thursday outside of the Ames public library, where Story County Democrats had just held their monthly meeting.

“Since they’re so close, I just want the candidate who is more likely to have a chance,” he said. “It’s an uphill battle, probably, in Iowa still.”

Turek says he can win independents and GOP voters

At the Des Moines Farmers’ Market last weekend, where both candidates waded through the crowds, Sundie Ruppert shouted her support for Turek as he passed by her tent, saying he had her vote.

Ruppert called the race an “embarrassment of riches,” something that’s been rare as of late. She said the two stand for “virtually everything the same,” so for her, it’s a matter of who can win the crossover support to get over the finish line in November.

Turek, a four-time wheelchair basketball Paralympian born with spina bifida, says his story of overcoming adversity and his politics appeal to independent and moderate Republican voters. He represents a state House district that supported President Donald Trump.

Turek said he’s laser-focused on securing a livable wage, health care access and drinkable water, not the culture-war issues that he said Republicans use to distract voters from the core problems they are facing.

“I’m not gonna get dragged down the rabbit hole of worrying about these distraction issues,” Turek said in an interview.

“I think that if we are going to win again in a state like Iowa, it is going be a message of economic populism,” he said. “It is going to be that we as a Democratic Party stand for the workers and for the middle class. That’s the way forward.”

Ruppert said she thinks general election voters are more likely to vote for Turek, even if they “have to hold their nose.”

“We’ve got to get the independents,” she said. “I do believe that Josh in a red district has better pull than Wahls.”

Wahls says he will stand up to leadership in both parties

About 37 miles (60 kilometers) north in Ames on Thursday, Shellie Orngard said she’s heard that logic and doesn’t buy it.

Orngard said both are good people and strong candidates, but Wahls strikes her as “somebody with real character behind his convictions.”

“I think that whether you’re Democrat or Republican or independent, you appreciate authenticity and real values,” Orngard said. “I think Zach Wahls just seems to have the character that I feel he’s the person that I want to put my vote behind.”

Wahls says he’s the candidate willing to defy leadership in both parties, and he has criticized Turek for not rejecting Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer as caucus leader.

He says his anti-establishment message is winning back the working-class voters, especially common across eastern Iowa, who supported Obama before they pivoted to Trump.

“We’re not just talking about building a coalition that can win in November, we are already doing it,” he said. “These are voters who are not hardcore MAGA Trump Republicans. A lot of them are just really frustrated with both parties, they don’t trust Washington, they don’t trust the establishment.”

“And what we hear from people all the time is, ‘Even if we don’t agree on every issue, if you are willing to take them on, you’ve got my vote,’” Wahls said.

Iowa will be a tough win for either Democrat

Iowa has shifted considerably since Obama’s win in 2012, voting for Trump in the last three presidential elections. Democrats lag Republicans by roughly 200,000 registered voters statewide.

Rob Sand, state auditor and candidate for governor, was the only Democrat to win statewide in 2022.

Nearly 30,000 Democrats have already cast their ballots as of Friday, according to data from the secretary of state’s office. Still, in Ellston on Wednesday, many of the two dozen southwest Iowa Democrats waiting to hear from Turek said they’d rely on a gut feeling.

“As far as I’m concerned, Ashley Hinson has got to be beat,” said Lynne Wallace, a 67-year-old from Mount Ayr. The staunch Democrat said she’d support either candidate in the general election, already eager to make calls and knock on doors, but added that she’s got “shaky faith” that either Democrat can pull it off.

Lois Rose, 77, and her 79-year-old husband, John, said at the Des Moines farmers’ market that they might not vote in the primary at all since they, so far, hadn’t been able to make up their minds on whether one candidate is stronger than the other.

She suggested the pair could also coordinate their votes, each casting a ballot for one of the two. John liked the idea.

“They’re both so qualified,” said Lois Rose of West Des Moines. “They’re both very genuine, hence the difficulty.”