Most Americans see Iran as an enemy but doubt Trump’s judgment on military force, AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — As the U.S. and Iran head into their next round of nuclear talks in Geneva, a new AP-NORC poll finds that many U.S. adults continue to view Iran’s nuclear program as a threat — but they also don’t have high trust in President Donald Trump’s judgment on the use of military force abroad.

About half of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the United States, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 3 in 10 are “moderately” concerned and only about 2 in 10 are “not very” concerned or “not concerned at all.”

The survey was conducted Feb. 19-23, as military tensions built in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The U.S. is seeking a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program and ensure it does not develop nuclear weapons, while Iran says it is not pursuing weapons and has so far resisted demands that it halt uranium enrichment on its soil or hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Trump, who scrapped an earlier nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term, has repeatedly threatened to use force to compel Iran to agree to constrain its atomic program, which Trump claimed to have “obliterated” following the 12-day war in June where the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites. Iran has said it would respond with an attack of its own. Trump has also threatened Iran over the killing of protesters. Both countries have signaled they are prepared for war if the talks on Tehran’s nuclear program fail, and the U.S. has assembled its largest military force in the Mideast in decades as tensions with Iran have risen.

Most Americans, 61%, say Iran is an “enemy” of the U.S., which is up slightly from a Pearson Institute/AP-NORC poll conducted in September 2023. But their confidence in the president’s judgment when it comes to relationships with adversaries and the use of military force abroad is low, the new poll shows, with only about 3 in 10 Americans saying they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” trust in Trump.

Even some Republicans — particularly younger Republicans — have reservations about Trump’s ability to make the right choices on these high-stakes issues.

Most US adults have concerns about Trump’s judgment on military force

The Trump administration this year has held two rounds of nuclear talks with Iran under Omani mediation, with a third round scheduled to begin Thursday. Similar talks last year between the U.S. and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program broke down after Israel launched what became the 12-day war in June.

“We are in negotiations with them,” Trump said during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, which took place after the poll was conducted. “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: We will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Americans have significant reservations about Trump’s judgment on foreign conflicts, the AP-NORC poll shows. Only about 3 in 10 of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust in Trump’s judgment on the use of military force, relationships with U.S. adversaries or the use of nuclear weapons. More than half trust him “only a little” or “not at all.”

On each measure, Republicans are more likely than Democrats and Independents to trust that the president will make the right decisions. About 6 in 10 Republicans have a high level of trust in Trump, while roughly 9 in 10 Democrats have a low level of trust in him.

But some Republicans’ confidence is more qualified. Younger Republicans — those under 45 — are less likely than older Republicans to say they trust Trump “a great deal” or “quite a bit” on his use of military force. About half of younger Republicans say this, compared to about two-thirds of older Republicans.

Many view Iran’s nuclear program as a threat

The new finding that 48% of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to their country is in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in July 2025, indicating that even with recent escalations between the two countries, Americans have not changed their views.

Before the June war, Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. The U.N. nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency — had said Iran was the only country in the world to enrich to that level that wasn’t armed with the bomb.

Iran has been refusing requests by the IAEA to inspect the sites bombed in the June war, raising the concerns of nonproliferation experts.

Worries about Iran’s nuclear program cross party lines in the U.S., though Republicans are currently more concerned. Most Republicans — 56% — say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, compared to 44% of Democrats.

Younger Americans are less worried about Iran

Americans generally hold a negative view of Iran, but the view is sharper among older Americans.

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Iran is an “enemy” of the United States, up slightly from 53% from the Pearson/AP-NORC poll from 2023. Roughly 3 in 10 say the countries are “not friendly, but not enemies,” and only about 1 in 10 Americans consider Iran a country that is “friendly” or “close allies.”

At the same time, only about half of U.S. adults under 45 say Iran is an enemy, compared to about 7 in 10 Americans ages 45 and older. There is also a wide generational divide in concern about Iran’s nuclear program, with only about one-third of Americans under 45 saying they are highly concerned, compared to about 6 in 10 older Americans.

Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have existed for decades, which may help explain why older Americans are more concerned. Nuclear talks had been deadlocked for years after Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

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Liechtenstein reported from Vienna. AP reporter Jon Gambrell in Dubai contributed to this report.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,133 adults was conducted Feb. 19-23 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

___ The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/