Republicans see their grip on Senate tighten amid Democrats’ dysfunction in Maine

NEW YORK (AP) — As Democrats scramble to contain a political disaster in Maine, the Republicans on the front lines of the GOP’s fight to hold the U.S. Senate majority are breathing a sigh of relief.

For much of the year, Republican operatives have been quietly considering the real possibility that their party might lose the Senate. No longer.

While much can change before November, Republicans have already begun to rethink their national strategy to take advantage of a political map that suddenly looks much more favorable in the wake of Maine Democrat Graham Platner’s latest controversy — an accusation of sexual assault that even his most loyal allies have described as credible.

Platner, who denies the allegation, is under intense pressure to quit the race. And the lineup of potential replacements has hardly inspired fear among the Republicans backing incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term this fall.

The incredible Democratic dysfunction transforms the Maine Senate race from perhaps Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in the nation to one where dejected and divided Democrats don’t know who their nominee will be four months before Election Day.

“Obviously, expectations are that this certainly will be helpful overall,” said Joanna Rodriguez of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Without Maine, Rodriguez added, “Democrats have no path to a majority.”

The math suggests she may be right.

Democrats need to flip four seats to claim the Senate majority for President Donald Trump’s final two years in office.

Maine stands alone as the only 2026 Senate battleground where a Republican is facing reelection in a state Democrat Kamala Harris carried in 2024. North Carolina, where Democrats have rallied behind popular former Gov. Roy Cooper, likely represents the party’s next best pickup opportunity, while Democrats are fighting to compete in the deeper-red states of Iowa, Alaska, Ohio and Texas. At the same time, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

To claim the Senate majority without Maine, Democrats must win all the seats they current hold and four of five in states where Trump won by an average of more than 10 points.

“I’m convinced Republicans are holding the Senate,” says New York-based Republican donor Eric Levine, who has hosted fundraising events for Collins and other vulnerable GOP senators. The situation in Maine, he continued, “makes it easier.”

What changes for Republicans

It’s hard to overstate how focused Republicans have been on protecting Collins, the last Republican senator serving in New England.

So far this election cycle, Republicans have spent $108 million on her race — more than almost every other Senate race in the nation, but just behind Texas’s record-breaking Republican primary, according to data complied by AdImpact.

And the GOP was planning to spend much more in Maine, according to Republican strategist Chris Hartline.

“Republicans were in a situation where we were going to have to go all in on Maine,” he said.

The Platner explosion does not mean that Maine suddenly becomes an easy Republican hold, Hartline noted, but it does give the national party some “breathing room” to shift resources elsewhere.

On Wednesday, for example, the Republican super PAC One Nation announced plans to spend a combined $45 million in three Senate races: Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire. The Maine contest was excluded from the super PAC’s Wednesday list, even though One Nation has already spent $23.5 million in the state, according to AdImpact.

Republicans are not planning to divert all of their money out of Maine in the short term, however.

Operating under the assumption that Platner quits the race in the coming days, Republicans are planning a negative ad blitz to undermine Collins’ next opponent immediately.

“The candidate we’re running against is largely undefined,” Rodriguez said. “So there will have to be spending and a campaign on behalf of Collins to be sure that that person is defined early.”

Collins, meanwhile, who was already planning for a difficult reelection, was sitting on nearly $10 million in her campaign account near the end of May.

“Fundraising continues on at a strong clip and we are heartened to see support from Mainers and Americans across the nation continue to grow,” said Collins’ campaign spokesperson Blake Kernen. “Our cash position remains very strong.”

What’s next for Democrats?

Maine Democratic Party officials are scrambling to complete a plan if and when Platner announces he’ll withdraw.

Virtually all of his high-profile supporters this week called for Platner to step down, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had stood by the oyster farmer even after revelations of a tattoo recognized as a Nazi symbol, extramarital sexting and controversial social media posts that would have wrecked a typical campaign.

Everything changed this week when a former girlfriend told reporters that Platner drunkenly entered her house and sexually assaulted her in 2021, an allegation the candidate denied.

According to Maine law, Platner would need to step aside voluntarily by 5 p.m. July 13 before any other contender can replace him. So far, Platner has only committed to pausing his campaign.

Should he quit the race, the law then says the Maine Democratic Party has the authority to choose a replacement, which must be done by July 27 — just 99 days before Election Day.

“Democrats have taken their No. 1 pickup opportunity and completely fumbled it,” said Rodriguez, of the NRSC. “This is the strongest Susan Collins has ever been.”