US on track to have historically low number of homicides in 2026, report says

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Data collected from 30 American cities showed an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 compared to the same period in 2026, translating to about 215 fewer homicides this year, according to a new report from the independent Council on Criminal Justice.

Should the trend continue, it would push the annual homicide rate to the lowest levels in over a century once final numbers are released at the end of the year.

The report, released Thursday, tracked 13 crimes and recorded drops in nine of those categories, including carjackings, residential burglary and aggravated assaults. There was a small jump in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults and drug offenses over the same period between 2025 and 2026, the report showed.

Experts say the broadly positive changes are exceeding expectations, improving on baseline crime rates from before 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought historic surges in violence.

Democrats and Republicans across the country have tried to capitalize on the positive developments during a competitive midterm election year. But the trends documented in the report carry through in cities with leadership across the political spectrum.

That suggests the most significant factors contributing to the improvements are taking place nationwide and are not specific to a single local public safety measure, said Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank for criminal justice policy and research.

“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity,” Gelb said.

The council collects data from police departments and other law enforcement sources. Some of the report categories include data from as many as 36 cities, while others include fewer cities in their totals because of tracking gaps or differences in definitions for specific crimes.

Notably, Gelb said that a significant number of violent crimes were less deadly: There was a 23% drop in the lethality of the crimes committed, which is measured by the share of serious violent crime that is fatal.

Many of the non-violent crimes tracked in the report also saw declines, including a 13% drop in residential burglaries year over year and a 50% drop in burglaries compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. At the same time, reported shoplifting bucked the trends of other property crimes, showing a 5% increase. And while there was a small increase in drug offenses, those were still lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Roughly a third of the 30 sampled cities defied average homicide rate declines across the country, recording an increase in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. That includes Norfolk, Virginia, which saw a 64% increase in homicides, and San Francisco, which saw a 55% increase. The number of cities that saw a longer-term increase was far smaller: Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis experienced more homicides in 2026 than in the same period in 2019.

There are many factors that could impact why a location sees increases or decreases in certain crimes when another doesn’t, according to John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago.

Roman said that conservative politicians affiliated with President Donald Trump will point to intensified immigration crackdowns and the deployment of the National Guard in cities like Los Angeles and Memphis, whereas liberal politicians might point to former Democratic President Joe Biden’s public safety legislation that strengthened background checks on firearm sales.

But ultimately, Roman said, the best explanations transcend specific administrations. That ranges from decreased drug usage and therefore fewer purchases from illegal markets, which are often linked to violence, to an influx of federal funding for localities after the pandemic that was spent on social programming.

Those programs, Roman said, often funded jobs like teachers and social workers who primarily work with “young people who are the highest risk of violence and victimization.”

While both Gelb and Roman concurred that there wasn’t a single reason, Gelb said the outcomes should be studied for future insights and celebrated.

“This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades. It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability,” Gelb said.