What Eric Adams’ exit means for the NYC mayor’s race

The race to be the next mayor of New York City is down to three main candidates after incumbent Eric Adams dropped his reelection bid over the weekend.

Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa are already looking to capitalize on Adams’ exit, as the contest heads into its final stretch.

It’s hard to predict what effect Adams’ departure will have on the race, but the impact could be minimal. Adams will remain on the ballot since the deadline to withdraw his name has passed, and polls conducted in September indicated that his support among New York City voters was low.

Here is a look at what the contest’s latest shakeup means going forward:

Can anyone catch Zohran Mamdani?

Mamdani, a 33-year-old state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, became the presumed favorite in the race after beating Cuomo decisively in the primary.

Cuomo and his supporters had called on both Adams and Sliwa to drop out of the race to set up what they argue would be a more favorable one-on-one rematch with Mamdani. Even Republican President Donald Trump has said he thinks the former Democratic governor has a better chance than Sliwa, deriding his own party’s candidate as “not exactly prime time.”

Experts say Adams’ exit alone might be too little too late to help Cuomo catch up.

“I don’t know if this dramatically changes the overall narrative of the race,” said Basil Smikle, a Democratic political strategist and professor at Columbia University. “If it were earlier in the summer or after primary, I think there would have been a lot more time to frame that matchup between Cuomo and Mamdani.”

But Cuomo said on Sunday night that the incumbent mayor dropping out “changes the entire dynamic of the race.”

“There’s now more attention on just me and just Mr. Mamdani,” he said. “It is a two-person race.”

Will Trump’s threats influence the race?

Trump waded into the race again Monday, threatening that New York City “won’t be getting any” federal money if frontrunner Mamdani is elected.

“Remember, he needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises,” Trump wrote on social media. “He won’t be getting any of it, so what’s the point of voting for him?”

Cuomo has repeatedly sought to send a similar message. After the president announced he was sending the National Guard into Washington, D.C., Cuomo warned that Trump will do the same thing to New York City if Mamadani takes office.

“Trump will flatten him like a pancake,” Cuomo wrote on social media in August.

Meanwhile, on Monday, Mamdani had already begun a renewed blitz to cast Cuomo as Trump’s candidate of choice in the heavily Democratic city.

“We know that Andrew Cuomo will be the greatest thing that can happen for Donald Trump, because he isn’t simply clearing the way or looking to Andrew Cuomo out of a sincere belief in what Cuomo will present for the people of the city, that he, Cuomo will clear the way for Donald Trump’s agenda,” Mamdani told reporters Monday.

Will Curtis Sliwa stay in the contest?

Sliwa, the colorful founder of the Guardian Angels crime patrol group, has refused to end his campaign, even amid Trump’s comments.

“If you’re going to do anything for Cuomo you’ve got to get Sliwa out, and Sliwa’s not getting out,” said George Arzt, a veteran Democratic political consultant in New York. “It’s not going to do anything unless you get Sliwa out, then it becomes interesting.”

Sliwa, who lost the last mayoral election to Adams by almost 40 percentage points, cheered the mayor’s exit from this year’s contest.

“I’m not sitting Shiva for Eric Adams,” he said Monday on Fox 5’s “Good Day New York,” referring to the Jewish period of mourning.

Asked if he would drop out, Sliwa pointed out that people had called on him after the Democratic primary to “drop out for Eric Adams.”

“How did that work out?” he said, pointing directly into the camera. “I’m the only consistent candidate, and I’m in it to win it.”

What’s next for Eric Adams?

In his announcement Sunday, Adams said he was dropping out of the race because a now-dismissed federal corruption case made some in the city wary of him, while blaming “constant media speculation” about his future for his inability to raise money and campaign.

In the weeks before his exit, Adams had been approached by Trump administration intermediaries to see if he would end his campaign in exchange for a job in the federal government, in order to narrow the field for Cuomo.

Adams will continue to serve out his term as mayor, campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro said in a statement, but added that he will “take time to be with family and friends” over “the next few days.”

Adams did not say what he plans to do after he leaves office, but said in his announcement video: “Although this is the end of my reelection campaign, it is not the end of my public service.”