What to watch as the midterms begin with Tuesday’s primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — After months of speculating, pontificating and spinning, the midterm election season begins in earnest Tuesday. The primary results in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas will provide some of the first concrete evidence for what voters want as President Donald Trump’s second term approaches the halfway mark.

Republicans insist that Trump’s most recent election gave them a vast mandate for their agenda. Democrats want to prove them wrong, and they have pointed to a smattering of recent victories as clues that they can make a comeback in Washington.

The primaries will stretch all the way into September before the general election in November that will determine control of Congress and statehouses around the country.

How influential is Trump despite being a lame duck? Will Democrats replace party fixtures with a new generation? How will redistricting affect the races?

Here are some of the questions that The Associated Press will be watching as the primaries begin.

Is money or Trump’s endorsement more important?

The president’s endorsement remains coveted by Republican candidates and he has backed more than 200 candidates running for Congress and state-level executive offices this year, according to an AP tally.

But Trump has left some races off his list.

In Texas, he has not endorsed Sen. John Cornyn or his two challengers, state Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt. Although Cornyn is a longtime Republican, Paxton and Hunt are trying to make inroads by emphasizing their fealty to Trump.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, also from Texas, has not gotten the nod from Trump, either. Although the Houston-area congressman is broadly aligned with his party on issues such as deportations and transgender care for minors, he has also supported U.S. military assistance for Ukraine and criticized Republicans who continue to advance the baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

Crenshaw is being challenged by state Rep. Steve Toth, and the two have traded accusations that the other is insufficiently conservative.

Incumbents have a traditional advantage in fundraising, and Cornyn and Crenshaw are significantly outspending their rivals on campaign advertising. But it is unclear whether the money will be enough to insulate them this year when Trump has not granted his personal blessing.

What is Democrats’ answer to the Trump presidency?

Trump has dominated American politics for a decade, but Democrats are still figuring out what to do about him. Does the party want a fighter? A healer? Something else?

All eyes are on Texas, where the Senate primary has provided a split screen view of the options. On one side is Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has made a name for herself for going toe-to-toe with Republicans. One of her advertisements boasts that she “drives the president crazy.” Another has the tagline “Crockett fights for us.” In this political playbook, division is fuel, motivating Democrats who feel their party has been too timid.

On the other side is state Rep. James Talarico, a former middle school teacher who is working toward a divinity degree. He denounces “politics as a blood sport” and says people want “a return to more timeless values of sincerity and honesty and compassion and respect.”

Democrats have been trying to turn Texas from red to purple for years, without any luck. Some think they may have a shot this year as Trump becomes increasingly unpopular. The only question is, who will they think is the right candidate for the job?

Will Democrats choose generational change over familiar faces?

It is not just a willingness to fight that is a dividing line among Democrats. Some say it is time for fresh faces.

Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, is facing off against Rep. Al Green, 78, in Texas. They are running against each other because, when the state redrew its maps, it combined parts of their two districts.

So now Menefee, who is only a few weeks into his first term after winning a special election, is trying to dislodge Green, who is serving his 11th term.

Protect Progress, a crypto super political action committee, is running advertisements saying “Democrats used to be the party of the future” and that it is time to “pass the torch” to Menefee.

In North Carolina, Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, is facing a challenge from progressive Nida Allam, 32, who has endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Justice Democrats. It is a rematch from 2022, when Foushee defeated Allam and others during a crowded primary.

Allam, a county commissioner, is campaigning on a message of a “brighter future.”

Can a state redistrict itself into irrelevance?

North Carolina has the dubious distinction of redrawing its congressional districts more often than any other state over the past decade. It has used a different map in every election going back to 2020, plus two other maps in the prior decade.

Almost all of the districts in the current version, which was drawn by the Republican-dominated state legislature last fall, are solidly red or blue. The only exception is the 1st Congressional District, which leans right but could still be contested by Democrats.

This means that most House races will be effectively decided in the primary, not the November general election. The lack of suspense appears to contribute to political apathy.

In the past three presidential races, when North Carolina is a battleground, the state ranked between 11th and 14th in turnout, according to data from the US Elections Project. But in the past four midterm elections, it has been no higher than 23rd.

A lack of competition also means less money. In the 1st District, the five Republican candidates have collectively reported almost $4.5 million in spending, according to Federal Election Commission filings. That is more than three times the combined Democratic and Republican spending in any of the state’s other races.

Despite being a closely divided state, the redistricting means there are fewer opportunities for voters to alter the balance of power in the House.