Will the government shutdown affect next year’s election? Recent history provides clues

WASHINGTON (AP) — Political leaders in Washington are spending considerable energy blaming the other party for what could be an extended government shutdown, and that effort includes shaping the narrative for next year’s elections.

The Democratic campaign arm for House members has taken out digital ads in 35 districts it considers competitive. The ads accuse the Republicans of “standing in the way of affordable health care — on purpose.” The ads align with Democratic insistence that their health coverage concerns be addressed as part of a bill to fund the government, a demand Republicans have rejected. A Democratic-aligned group, House Majority Forward, also launched a $3 million ad campaign in 10 Republican-held districts.

The House Republican campaign organization has launched two digital ads in swing districts. “It’s sabotage. Democrats are threatening a government shutdown to stop President Trump’s policies. Like Trump’s crackdown on MS-13 and violent criminals,” one of the ads says. Meanwhile, two conservative advocacy groups, One Nation and American Action Network, announced ad buys in New York and Washington markets. “The woke mob demanded a government shutdown,” the ad says. “So that’s exactly what liberals in Congress are doing.”

With narrow margins determining who controls each chamber of Congress, the two parties cannot afford to leave anything to chance when it comes to winning the shutdown’s messaging campaign. But recent history suggests there is reason to doubt the shutdown will be a factor in the 2026 election.

Republicans won big after forcing a shutdown in 2013

The October 2013 shutdown that lasted for 16 full days is Exhibit A. Republicans demanded significant changes to Democratic-President Barack Obama’s signature health care law in exchange for funding the government and giving the Treasury Department the ability to borrow to pay the nation’s bills.

Doug Heye, who served as deputy chief of staff to then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., recalls GOP leadership worrying about the political ramifications. But many in the rank and file were convinced by a few GOP senators that they had a winning hand and could use a shutdown as leverage to roll back portions of the Affordable Care Act, he said.

“We basically said, if this is what these guys want, they’ll touch the stove, they’ll get burned and figure out, well, you don’t do that. This is not the smart course,” Heye said.

That is pretty much what happened. Republicans gave in as polls showed the GOP faring poorly. But it did not take long for the public to move on.

A little more than a year later, Republicans scored big wins at the ballot box. They gained 13 seats in the House, expanding upon their already significant majority. They also gained nine seats in the Senate, seizing the majority.

Heye said the election was a lesson that unless a shutdown becomes protracted and begins to affect voters on a personal level, the electoral fallout will probably be minimal.

“Voters tend to have short memories on this. Whoever they’ve blamed, they’ve moved on to one, or two, or 10 things over the course of a year,” Heye said.

The longest shutdown is harder to judge

The election results were mixed following the 2018-2019 partial shutdown that lasted 35 days.

Republican President Donald Trump insisted that a funding bill include billions of dollars for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. Senate Democrats refused to go along. The shutdown ended as Democratic leaders had insisted it must: Reopen the government first, then talk border security.

Trump would go on to lose to Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. But that race happened during a COVID-19 pandemic that clearly was front and center for voters. Democrats would gain three seats in the Senate to forge a 50-50 tie and the majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker. But Republicans picked up seats in the House, even though many had expected Democrats to expand their majority.

While the two most recent extended shutdowns suggests a limited impact on subsequent elections, it is a small sample size. A lengthy and painful shutdown could change the dynamic.

The relatively small amount of money dedicated to the ad buys also signals the two parties are eyeing bigger fights ahead. Still, the ads reinforce themes both parties expect to emphasize going into the midterms.

In the ad war, it’s health care vs. immigration

For Democrats, health care is central as millions of people in the United States brace for more expensive health insurance coverage next year if Congress does not extend tax credits that make insurance premiums more affordable for those who purchase through the marketplaces established through “Obamacare.” Millions would also lose coverage through the new work requirements and other changes that Republicans made to Medicaid in Trump’s package of tax breaks and spending cuts, though the work requirements do not begin until 2027.

Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who chairs the Democratic campaign arm, said the No. 1 issue across the country is affordability and rising prices.

“Look, going forward, people are seeing prices going up when Donald Trump promised to lower prices on Day 1. It’s a big, big broken promise from Republicans,” she said. “And we have candidates who are running to stand up for their communities. It’s a big reason why we are going to win next year.”

Republicans are using the shutdown to pivot to immigration, an issue they believe was instrumental in sweeping them to power across Washington last year.

“Tell Democrats, don’t hold the government hostage to put illegals before us,” the National Republican Congressional Committee’s digital ad says.

Immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally are not eligible for any federal health care programs, including insurance provided through the Obama health overhaul and Medicaid. And Democrats say they’re not looking to change that.

In the two most recent extended shutdowns, Republicans were seeking changes in government policy to keep the government open. This time, it’s Democratic lawmakers.

In a statement, North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the House Republican campaign arm, said Republicans voted to keep the government open to ensure critical funding and paychecks to workers and service members were delivered on time. He called the shutdown “wasteful and unnecessary.”

“The blame for this reckless decision and the harm it will cause working families rests squarely with the Democrats, and it will cost them their seats next November,” Hudson said.

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