The Latest: Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil will predict winter’s end or 6 more weeks of cold

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (AP) — Tens of thousands of people are gathering for Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog that lives in a tree stump, to predict if the already long and cold winter across much of the United States will go on for another six weeks or if an early spring is around the corner.

The meteorological marmot’s predictions on Monday are pretty straightforward, although his top-hatted handlers in the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club insist Phil’s “groundhogese” of winks, purrs, chatters and nods are also being interpreted.

When Phil is said to have seen his shadow upon emergence from a tree stump in rural Pennsylvania, that’s considered a forecast for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, an early spring is said to be on the way.

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Phil’s accuracy rate is only 40%, according to the NOAA

Some well-meaning efforts have sought to determine Phil’s accuracy, but what “six weeks of winter” means is debatable. By all accounts, the furry prognosticator predicts more winter far more often than he predicts an early spring.

And claims that a groundhog has or has not seen its shadow — and that it’s able to communicate that to a human — are also fair territory for skeptics and the humor-impaired.

Among the skeptics is the National Centers for Environmental Information, within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The government agency last year compared Phil’s record with U.S. national temperatures over the prior decade and concluded he was right only 40% of the time.

Why Punxsutawney?

Punxsutawney is an area that Pennsylvania Germans settled — and in the late 1880s started celebrating the holiday by picnicking, hunting and eating groundhogs.

Members of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, organized in 1899, care for Phil at a customized space beside Punxsutawney Memorial Library — where there’s a window with a view into the creature’s burrow.

Similar events take place throughout North America and beyond

The annual ritual at Gobbler’s Knob goes back more than a century, with ties to ancient farming traditions in Europe. Punxsutawney’s festivities have grown considerably since the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray.

Groundhog Day falls on Feb. 2, the midpoint between the shortest, darkest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox. It’s a time of year that also figures in the Celtic calendar and the Christian holiday of Candlemas.