70% chance western WA’s upcoming El Niño winter will be a ‘record event’

The latest seasonal weather outlook for the nation, including western Washington, was recently released and reflects an ongoing strengthening El Niño heading into this winter.

The eastern Pacific tropical waters west of Peru have warmed to 2 degrees Celsius, or about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, above average. This warming is the result of weaker-than-normal easterly trade winds across the Pacific.

El Niño sea surface temperature forecast guidance from around the world indicates El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year. In fact, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event, and a near 70% chance this El Niño will be a record event, with records going back to 1950.

The just-released seasonal weather outlook reflects a strong El Niño episode through this winter. During El Niño, the Pacific storm track spends more time moving into California and across the nation’s southern tier. As a result, the Pacific Northwest usually has a warmer-than-average winter with a slight edge toward drier-than-average conditions.

The latest seasonal weather outlook shows a more southern winter storm track, giving the Pacific Northwest good odds of warmer-than-average temperatures and no clear trend in precipitation this winter.

For this fall – September through November – the outlook signals warmer-than-average temperatures and drier-than-average rainfall. Given how dry this summer has been, this outlook shows the current wildfire season will likely extend into at least September.

The region’s wildfire threat remains high until a significant fall rain event arrives. In the meantime, continue to prevent wildfire starts. Those efforts include avoiding tossing burning materials out of vehicles, any outdoor burning — bans are in place across much of Western Washington — and ensuring campfires are cold before leaving, along with other efforts.

Given the warm fall and winter weather outlook, the season implies another below-average mountain snowpack, not good news for skiers and water managers. Another subpar mountain snowpack would make that five years in a row.

To help prepare for the rest of the wildfire season and this winter, visit ready.gov or your local county emergency management websites for helpful readiness information for your home, business, and pets. Now is a good time to get ready.

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on X and Bluesky. Read more of his stories here.