Dry skies, warm temps and holiday travel: What to know for Fourth of July weekend

Does it feel like it always rains on the Fourth of July? Many remember that one soggy camping trip or cool, drippy fireworks show. Or is it a myth? A review of western Washington weather records for Independence Day so far this century reveals answers.

Going back through 2001, it has rained only twice at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), five times at Paine Field in Everett, and twice in Olympia. The heaviest amount fell at Paine Field in 2002 with nearly two-tenths of an inch of rain. The last measurable rainfall fell 10 years ago in 2016, again at Paine Field with only 0.05 inches of rain.

SEA high temperatures since 2001 on the Fourth of July have ranged from a cool 65 degrees in 2002 to a hot 92 degrees in 2015. Last year, the high temperature was an average for the day of 74 degrees with afternoon sunshine. The previous year hit 83 degrees. Since the start of the century, the average Independence Day high temperature has been 75.9 degrees.

At Olympia, the average high temperature has been 76.5 degrees, including a spread of 63 degrees in 2002 to 93 degrees in 2015. Last year, the high temperature on Independence Day was a mild 73 degrees while the year before reached a toasty 86 degrees. Paine Field reached 71 degrees last year on the Fourth.

This week’s weather forecast including Fourth of July weekend

During early July, it is quite common to have a weather pattern of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, much like during this past week. By this holiday weekend, higher pressure aloft is forecast to build, and cool low-level flow from the Pacific Ocean is expected to ease.

This adjustment in the weather pattern will result in a shorter duration of morning clouds and more afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures across all of western Washington except along the outer coast. High temperatures will be quite seasonal, ranging from the mid-60s near shorelines to the 70s elsewhere.

The evening of the Fourth should have generally clear skies for a delightful evening of public fireworks shows. Temperatures will cool down into the 60s, so have a light jacket, sweater, or sweatshirt handy.

Looking at holiday travel

Holiday travel for this week is already underway, with some taking the rest of the week off. Travel is expected to peak Wednesday and Thursday, and again Sunday when many who left town all return.

Across the nation, according to the AAA travel forecast, over 72 million Americans are anticipated to travel over 50 miles for the Independence Day holiday weekend, similar to last year. Nearly 60 million will drive, and almost 6 million will fly.

Locally on the road, the Washington State Department of Transportation said highways like I-90, I-5, and US 2 will be busiest Wednesday through the holiday weekend from late morning until around 7 p.m. All highway road work will be paused to assist drivers.

If using the ferry system, Washington State Ferry authorities noted the busiest sailings for vehicles will likely be westbound (or onto an island) Wednesday through Friday the Fourth, and eastbound (or off island) Saturday and Sunday. They anticipate around 400,000 passengers through the holiday period.

Be sure to check the ferry schedule on their website or app for the latest available information, and plan for delays in ferry terminal waits. To reduce waiting, riders may consider taking an early morning or late-night sailing or using transit to walk or bike onto the ferry if possible.

Gas prices falling

On June 30, the average Washington gas price for regular unleaded was $5.32 per gallon. A year ago, it was $3.93 per gallon. Gas prices have been falling recently. Just a week ago, the average statewide gas price was $5.77.

On July 1, though, the state’s gas tax at the pump rose 1.1 cents per gallon, for a total of 56.5 cents. The state’s gas tax is the third highest in the nation, behind Pennsylvania at 57.6 cents and California at 63.4 cents per gallon.

Across Washington, the lowest gas prices can be found in parts of Eastern Washington, including Spokane County and the northeast part of the state, Asotin County, and Chelan County. In Western Washington, lower gas prices can be discovered in Whatcom, Skagit, and Clark Counties.

In neighboring states, the average gas price in Oregon is $4.83 per gallon of regular, and in Idaho is $4.10 a gallon. In contrast, the average price of regular fuel in British Columbia is $1.47 per liter, which translates to about $5.56 a gallon.

Fireworks and warm, dry conditions

This year has again been drier than average. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows much of Western Washington is abnormally dry while eastern Washington is in moderate or severe drought.

SEA is over an inch below average for the year thus far, and Olympia is more than two inches behind.

Grasses and shrubs are dry, and fireworks can easily ignite them. If using fireworks, be sure to have plenty of water on hand to knock down any fires that may start. Avoid use of any fireworks that shoot into the air, such as bottle rockets, that can start a house or brush fire.

The best choice to enjoy fireworks is to visit a public fireworks display throughout Western Washington. As the country celebrates its 250th birthday, have a safe and sane Fourth of July with family, friends, and neighbors.

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on X and Bluesky. Read more of his stories here.