Groundhog Day explained: The 139-year history behind Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast

Monday, Feb. 2, is Groundhog Day. There is a long 139-year history behind this folklore and the annual ceremony in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

History of Groundhog Day

The story begins with a diary entry by storekeeper James Morris of Morgantown, Pennsylvania on February 4, 1841.

“Last Tuesday, the 2nd was Candlemas Day, the day of which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters, and if he sees his shadow, he pops back for another six weeks’ nap, but if the day is cloudy, he remains out as the weather is to be moderate,” Morris stated.

German immigrants brought this legend to the U.S., which dates back to the Middle Ages. The belief then was that animals, such as badgers or bears, would interrupt their hibernation to appear on this day; they would either see their shadow or not. The groundhog was the local Pennsylvania substitute animal.

What James Morris wrote offered some weather observations and meteorology. Winter surface high pressure in the eastern U.S. often results in sunny skies and cold temperatures. So if the groundhog finds sunshine on Feb. 2, winter is still likely in progress. If it is cloudy, then a more moderate weather pattern is already underway.

Watch the Groundhog Day Celebrations

Since 1887, Groundhog Day has been celebrated on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney each year on Feb. 2. This year’s celebration will again attract thousands of visitors to witness Punxsutawney Phil come out of his burrow and make his folklore weather prediction. According to groundhog.org, this year’s festivities in Punxsutawney are sold out. Yet, everyone can watch Phil make his legendary prediction on YouTube at Watch Groundhog Day Celebrations.

What About Western Washington?

Does Punxsutawney Phil’s weather forecast apply to Western Washington? In reality, no, because the weather and climate in the Keystone State is very different from this region. The latest Punxsutawney weather forecast for Sunday morning offers partly sunny skies and cold temperatures climbing to only near 20 degrees. The odds are good that Phil will see his shadow. Yet it is still fun to learn what Phil sees when he pops out of his burrow.

If Punxsutawney Phil resided here, he also would not see his shadow thanks to considerable cloud cover with some rain.

As the weeks wears on though, high pressure aloft will again rebuild over the Pacific Northwest resulting in early February sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. In some Western Washington locations, highs could crack the 60-degree mark. Record daily high temperatures are in the lower to mid-60s.

The sunshine and mild temperatures will likely offer the feel of an early spring. More winter-like weather is expected to return later this month.

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on X and Bluesky. Read more of his stories here.