Wildfire season could start early in WA after driest spring in years, forecasters warn

As of Sunday, it has been a dozen days since the last measurable rain at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), and on April 28, only 0.04 inches fell.

The weather has been quite dry for the last couple of weeks. The most recent significant rainfall at SEA was on April 22, with nearly 0.5 inches of rain. For Bellingham, the dry spell dates back to April 14, when Whatcom County received nearly 0.4 inches of rain.

For the year thus far and even after a wet March, SEA has fallen back to almost an inch of rain below average. Olympia has dropped to nearly three inches below average.

Western WA deemed ‘abnormally dry’

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of Western Washington has moved into the abnormally dry category. Much of Eastern Washington is in the moderate drought category. Earlier this spring, the Washington Department of Ecology declared a statewide drought emergency for the fourth consecutive year.

In the mountains, the snowpack usually peaks around April. The peak this season came in at around 50% of normal, and the available water in the snowpack was also well under average. When looking at both the Olympics and the Cascades during this period of dry, sunny weather, the amount of snow observed looks more like late June than mid-May.

Early wildfire season?

The current dry conditions and meager mountain snowpack point toward an early start for the wildfire season. According to the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, the wildfire outlook for July and August shows an above-average wildland fire potential.

State and local fire authorities are likely to begin messaging soon on how to avoid wildfire starts. About four out of five wildfires are started by people. Best practices include:

• Ensure campfires are out when leaving campgrounds
• Tighten tow chains to avoid sparks on the pavement
• Avoid the use of fireworks
• Keep burning materials in vehicles and avoid tossing them out the window
• Create defensible space around homes and businesses
• Clear dry brush and leaves around buildings
• Prune tree limbs up to eye level to avoid ladder-climbing fires
• Observe fire bans and restrictions

When will it rain

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day this week as a higher-pressure system builds over the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are expected to climb well into the 70s, with many of our usual places cracking the 80-degree mark. Average high temperatures in mid-May are in the mid-60s.

Then a change in the overall weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level low develops off the northern California coast. A return to low-level onshore flow from the Pacific Ocean will begin a gradual cool-down of high temperatures across Western Washington. Wednesday highs will top out in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and by Friday, it will be in the 60s.

The upper-level low is anticipated to spin up some hit-and-miss showers northward before the end of this week, marking the first real threat of rainfall in about two weeks. Another weak Pacific weather system is forecast to bring another threat of rain early next week.

Rain amounts, though, are expected to be light and spotty overall, not enough to douse the ongoing dry conditions.

The latest seasonal weather outlook for this summer continues to reflect warmer- and drier-than-average conditions. At this point in the year, it is time to begin adjusting habits to help avoid any wildfire starts and conserve water use.

Ted Buehner is the KIRO Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on X and Bluesky. Read more of his stories here.