Rand’s brand

In what may be the least surprising news of the day, Rand Paul has declared he’s running for president. The only surprising thing about the announcement was that he was considerably late delivering it.

That’s not to say Paul’s speech was GOP boilerplate. The appeal of Rand Paul is that he doesn’t just say what Republicans are saying. He highlighted that fact by pointing out that debt doubled under George W. Bush while also pointing out it has tripled under President Obama. He took a page from Ted Cruz’s arsenal and warned against electing a “Republican-light” who failed to present enough of a meaningful difference between Republicans and Democrats (a shot interpreted as aimed squarely at Jeb Bush).

I was most impressed with Paul directly appealing to black Americans in an effort to earn their votes. He pointed to failing schools and inner cities that have condemned too many kids to a lackluster education which permanently impedes opportunity.

He vowed to “see an America where criminal justice is applied equally and any law that disproportionately incarcerates people of color is repealed.” While I think there is legitimate debate to be had regarding criminal justice reform, I think arguing via “disproportionately incarceration” was pandering. Men are several times more likely than women to be incarcerated, but does that mean the system is biased against men? Statistical disproportionately is a tool to be considered, not necessarily proof of unfairness or wrongdoing. That said, it was refreshing to hear a Republican candidate make a direct attempt to appeal to voters who’ve been firmly in the grasp of Democrats.

Republicans tend to talk about policies and business instead of people and Paul was clearly trying to talk directly to the people.

He staked his ground as an independent Republican. He thumped crony capitalism, big government and its spawn, special interests, Democrats, and status-quo politicians.

His foreign policy moments were very carefully crafted. He does not want to be seen through the lens of his father’s isolationism. He vowed to “defend against those dead set on attacking us” and to “defend America whatever it takes.”

The key here is what does Rand Paul mean by “defend?” Many GOP voters will hear that as “take the fight to ISIS,” but I think Paul was crafting a much more limited message. However, he crafted it well today and helped alleviate some of those concerns with a firm statement on refusing Iran nuclear weapons. You can bet in the future, other Republican candidates will force from him a more vivid picture of what this would look like.

Paul hit notes on privacy, limited government, and liberty that will appeal to his faithful but clearly used the launch to try to immediately broaden his coalition. Limiting that effect is something he can’t help, which is the quality of his voice. It seems a bit the same no matter what he’s talking about and his bearing was that of a member of Congress giving a speech, not a president (but these things get better with time).

How Paul scores with his faithful fans was predestined and he will immediately tap into their enthusiasm via online fundraising. The real question is whether it will cause independents to give him a closer look.

A while back, Chris Matthews claimed that Rand Paul would be the 2016 GOP nominee. “You watch! This is what I do for a living.”

Matthews was wrong, but Paul will do well. His base is fiercely loyal and won’t be peeled off. If 2014 were the presidential year, he might have had a chance, but with world events what they are, his long shot got longer.

Two final notes: Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell cooperated to change Kentucky law so that he can run for re-election to the Senate as he runs for President (the ESTABLISHMENT is helping him?!! What does that mean?!) And, Paul may not win, but he will add substance to the debates. And Paul is young, so how he handles himself could lay the groundwork for a future, more formidable campaign.