Poland and Lithuania confirm exploring a bigger role in nuclear deterrence

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland and Lithuania confirm they are participating in discussions about their potential role in NATO’s nuclear deterrence efforts, which are built around U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe.

While talks are in early stages, expanding U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe could reassure continental allies of continued U.S. military support at a time when President Donald Trump has led an effort to reduce his country’s conventional defense involvement in Europe.

“We are talking, in order to create better conditions for nuclear deterrence and for Poland to play an important role in that,” Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski told Polish Radio on Wednesday.

Poland, however, has denied any plans to host nuclear weapons. That would be “an extremely serious matter, which is serious in terms of political consequences,” he said.

“Discussions are indeed taking place. I do not want to go into details at this point as they are classified, but discussions are ongoing, and Lithuania is certainly not standing on the sidelines,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said Tuesday, according to press agency BNS.

Both ministers were replying after anonymous sources cited Tuesday by the Financial Times said the United States had signaled openness to deploying elements of its nuclear arsenal in new European countries, in addition to the six currently thought to host nuclear weapons.

The FT reported that Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the NATO members located closest to Ukraine, were interested in potentially hosting bases for U.S. dual-capable aircraft, which can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.

The Pentagon declined to comment, but a Defense Department official said the U.S. and NATO “continuously assess the security environment” and work to keep effective deterrents. The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The US has had nuclear weapons in Europe for decades

The United States has stationed nuclear weapons in several European countries for decades as part of its security guarantees to NATO allies.

In recent years, Russia’s war against Ukraine and the broader threat Moscow poses to NATO have prompted discussions about the possibility of expanding the U.S. nuclear cooperation with Europe.

“Work to assess and potentially adapt NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture has been ongoing for several years and is not linked to any decision taken by the U.S. to adjust its conventional posture in Europe,” an official tasked with communicating for NATO but not authorized to be publicly named told the AP.

The NATO nuclear sharing program includes U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and Britain, as well as dual-capable aircraft owned by both the U.S. and its allies. The U.S. maintains full control over the nuclear weapons.

Poland has expressed its willingness to participate in the U.S. nuclear deterrence program since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with former president Andrzej Duda even welcoming the hosting of nuclear weapons. The current government led by Donald Tusk has been more cautious, speaking only about a bigger role in nuclear deterrence.

The U.S., however, has repeatedly indicated that placing nuclear weapons in eastern countries of NATO would be too provocative for Russia, Artur Kacprzyk, a nuclear deterrence analyst with the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, told the AP.

“There might be a middle ground there, which could be called ‘nuclear sharing light’. You would have, for example, Polish planes, certified for carrying U.S. nuclear weapons, but the weapons won’t be deployed in Poland. This aircraft from the east could be a sort of backup if, let’s say, German or Dutch aircraft are destroyed before they can use those nuclear weapons.”

U.S. and French deterrence efforts are complementary

Earlier this year, Poland said it would be one of several European countries to join France’s initiative of coordinating its nuclear deterrence efforts with European allies. France has been the only nuclear power in the European Union since Britain’s exit from the bloc in 2020.

The French-initiated cooperation is “complementary” to the U.S. deterrence, Kacprzyk said, but it has a different nature.

Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark and Norway also have said they were interested in the French initiative, which allows for the temporary deployment of France’s nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries. It also allows partners to participate in France’s deterrence exercises and allows allies’ non-nuclear forces to participate in France’s nuclear activities.

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polish broadcaster TVP on Tuesday that nuclear deterrence would be discussed during a NATO meeting in Brussels on June 18. He said both the French initiative and the U.S. program are part of those efforts.

Increasing nuclear cooperation in Europe might help the U.S. offset conventional reductions but it cannot fully substitute the forward presence of conventional troops, especially in countries bordering Russia, Kacprzyk said.

“Communicating ‘I might risk nuclear war to defend an ally but I don’t want to send my soldiers into the fight’ is a conflicting signal,” he said. “You need coherent signals at all levels of deterrence.”

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McNeil reported from Brussels and Toropin from Washington. Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed.