Tarnished by Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s legacy may be reshaped by war with Iran

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed a shellshocked shadow of himself. He looked diminished and downtrodden by the surprise assault that created a national emergency and caused his public support to plummet.

Now, as Israel faces another unprecedented crisis in a war with Iran, Netanyahu appears rejuvenated. With the U.S. lending its support against a threat he has devoted his life to confronting, Netanyahu is demonstrating a resurgent confidence that could signal a new turning point in his lengthy political career.

Even as Iranian missiles pound Israeli cities, Netanyahu, 75, has the chance to salvage his sagging political fortunes and reshape a legacy punctured by Hamas’ attacks, a corruption trial and a history of divisive rule. If he succeeds, it will cement his reputation within Israel as a political wizard who can rise from the ashes.

“Netanyahu has proven that he is a phoenix,” said veteran Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer Mazal Mualem.

Netanyahu’s troubled legacy is granted a lifeline

The war is far from won. Israel is still vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and whatever political boost Netanyahu gains from the latest developments could dissipate by elections scheduled for next year. He is the same polarizing leader he was yesterday.

Internationally, he faces an arrest warrant for charges of war crimes in Gaza. He is widely reviled across the Arab world. And after nearly two years of regionwide conflict, many critics see him as a warmonger responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza and elsewhere in the Middle East.

But domestically, where Netanyahu’s eyes are always focused, his legacy has been granted a lifeline.

Many Israelis are attuned to Netanyahu’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, which they view as a major threat to their country and are therefore relieved by the direct involvement of the U.S. military.

“Netanyahu is seen as a very divisive and destructive leader. He is seen as someone who talks a lot and doesn’t do anything,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu aide. “Today, Netanyahu redeemed himself, big time.”

In an early morning video statement after the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu could barely contain a smile as he thanked President Donald Trump. He said the intervention would “change history.”

It’s a stunning turnaround for an Israeli leader who critics and analysts largely wrote off in the days after Oct. 7, when he presided over the deadliest attack in Israel’s history. Many hold Netanyahu personally responsible for overseeing policies that enabled Hamas to retain power in Gaza for many years and build up a formidable arsenal.

Netanyahu has been buoyed occasionally since then by military successes against Hamas and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. But with the Gaza war dragging on with no end in sight, and dozens of Israeli hostages still in captivity, his approval ratings have remained low.

The week-old assault on Iran, highlighted by Sunday’s U.S. attack, grants Netanyahu a chance for salvation.

Netanyahu’s yearslong focus on Iran

The war caps a yearslong focus — some would say obsession — by Netanyahu on Iran and its nuclear program. Since his first term as prime minister in the 1990s, and throughout his current, nearly uninterrupted 16-year rule, he has made challenging Iran’s nuclear program his life’s work.

Netanyahu has long portrayed Iran as an existential threat — pointing not only to its nuclear program, but also its development of long-range missiles aimed at Israel and support for hostile militant groups on Israel’s borders.

Iran became a repeated theme in his speeches to the Israeli and international public. He famously hoisted a cartoon bomb from the dais of U.N. General Assembly as he accused Iran of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran insists the program is for civilian purposes. At the same time, Netanyahu has made no mention of Israel’s own widely suspected nuclear weapons arsenal.

Netanyahu took significant diplomatic risks to pursue his crusade, including with a 2015 speech to Congress that was organized by Republican lawmakers, angering the Obama administration. During the speech, he railed against a U.S.-led deal on Iran’s nuclear program just as negotiators were wrapping up its details. Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement during his first term.

Some critics say that it was Netanyahu’s laser focus on Iran, and the military and intelligence resources devoted to it, that blinded the Israeli leader and the defense establishment to the threat Hamas in Gaza.

Hamas’ attack is a stain on Netanyahu’s legacy

Hamas’ attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage, blindsided Israel. Netanyahu, who likes to portray himself as a security hawk and the only true guardian of Israel, is seen by many as having promoted a failed strategy in the years preceding the Oct. 7 attack by sending huge amounts of aid into in Gaza under the misconception that Hamas was deterred.

In fact, the Palestinian militant group would stage a brutal assault that would crush Israel’s vaunted defenses and change the course of history.

In the aftermath of Hamas’ attack, Netanyahu’s public support plummeted.

Netanyahu shrugged off accountability for Hamas’ attacks, pointing a finger at his security chiefs and rejecting demands for a public inquiry into the failures. He says he will answer tough questions about his role after the war, now in its 21st month.

Any political boost from the war could fade by elections

Netanyahu’s work is not done. The war in Gaza grinds on, and Netanyahu still dreams of seeing a normalization deal between Israel and Arab powerhouse Saudi Arabia as part of his legacy.

The question remains whether Netanyahu will rebound politically from the Iran war. Polls taken last week showed that Netanyahu would still struggle to form a coalition if elections were held today. Even if he gets a bump from Sunday’s U.S. attack, it’s not clear how long that might last.

Bushinsky compared Netanyahu’s potential political predicament to a world leader he likes to compare himself to, Winston Churchill, who, after leading the allies in triumphantly defeating the Nazis in World War II, did not get reelected in a 1945 vote in part because public priorities shifted dramatically.

“Bibi may be ‘King of Israel,” Bushinsky said, using a nickname for Netanyahu popular among his supporters, “but even a king has his limits.”