Venezuelan leader Maduro may seem desperate. But his loyalty vs punishment strategy is hard to crack

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — English phrases once bothered Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro so much that he urged his State of the Union address audience to phase out words like skatepark and fashion.

But as the White House now ponders whether the U.S. military should strike Venezuela, Maduro is embracing English, singing John Lennon’s Imagine, advocating for peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”

While his turnaround is seen as a sign of desperation by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their backers in Washington that the threat of military action would crack Maduro’s inner circle, months of pressure have yet to produce defections or a government transition.

Loyalty vs. punishment

Behind this knack for staying in power is a system that punishes disloyal associates harshly and allows loyal ministers, justices, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.

“The Bolivarian Revolution possesses a remarkable ability: the capacity for cohesion in the face of external pressure,” Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory in Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, said referring to the political movement, also known as Chavismo, that Maduro inherited from the late President Hugo Chávez. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”

Underpinning the loyalty-or-punishment principle are corruption networks blessed by Chávez and Maduro that give the loyal permission to get richer. The policy has vexed previous efforts to unseat Maduro and has helped him and his close associates to skirt economic sanctions, obtain U.S. presidential pardons and claim an electoral victory they resoundingly lost.

Rodríguez explained that prison and torture can be part of the punishment, which is usually harsher for accused wrongdoers with military affiliation. The strategy has been crucial for an authoritarian Maduro to keep control of the military, which he lets traffic drugs, oil, wildlife and myriad goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.

“This has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who at some point try to rise up, and it has been able to expose corrupt practices from all sorts of actors,” Rodríguez said.

Military stands by Maduro

Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, had banked on the military’s support to dislodge Maduro after credible evidence showed that he lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, just like they did in 2019 during a barracks revolt by a cadre of soldiers who swore loyalty to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized at the time by the first Trump administration as Venezuela’s rightful leader.

Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has increased the pressure on Maduro and his allies, including by doubling to $50 million the reward for information that leads to his arrest on narcoterrorism charges. A 2020 indictment accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, which the U.S. State Department on Monday designated as a foreign terrorist organization.

Maduro denies the accusations.

On Saturday, Trump said that the airspace “above and surrounding” the South American country should be considered as “closed in its entirety.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of making a ”colonial threat,” rallying supporters behind what it called an assault on national sovereignty.

Suspected drug boats bombed

In early September, the U.S. military began blowing up boats that the Trump administration has accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.

Many, including Maduro himself, see the U.S. military moves as an effort to end Chavismo’s hold on power. The opposition only added to this perception by reigniting its promise to remove Maduro from office.

Two weeks after the first boat strike, Chavismo’s loyalty was tested directly when Maduro’s pilot rebuffed efforts from the U.S. to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and deliver him into custody to face the charges.

“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired U.S. officer trying to recruit him. “The last thing we are is traitors.”

On Tuesday, ruling party supporters marched in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended in a ceremony in which Maduro raised a jeweled sword that belonged to South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and guided attendees, including Cabinet ministers, to swear in God’s name to defend peace and freedom.

Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like public displays of loyalty to prevent splits among leadership and social upheaval. She explained that division can lead people to believe that the risk of protesting has lessened.

‘We have to remain united’

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the designation of Cartel de los Soles provides Trump with additional options for dealing with Maduro. Hegseth hasn’t provided details on those options, but administration officials have signaled that they have trouble seeing a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable endgame.

David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said that only people who don’t understand Chavismo would think that a show of force will cause a government change.

“This is exactly the type of thing that unifies them,” Smilde said of the deployment of U.S. military forces. “They also talk about the $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the U.S. government? And more broadly, if the whole premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have to turn on Maduro and participate in regime change?”

Maduro’s entire presidency has been marked by a political, social and economic crisis that has pushed millions into poverty and driven more than 7.7 million people to migrate. The crisis has also caused support for the ruling party to plummet across the country.

With loyalty keeping his inner circle intact despite mounting U.S. pressure, Maduro has also sought to maintain his diminished base through the long-established practices that include organizing marches in the capital.

Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, has seen the country come undone under Maduro’s watch, with vivid memories of the severe food shortages that Venezuelans experienced in the late 2010s. Her support for Maduro, however, hasn’t wavered, and her commitment comes down to one fact: He was handpicked by Chávez to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.

Quintero, 60, said that Maduro, like Chávez, won’t abandon his supporters.

“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We have to remain united. We have to defend ourselves.”