UW model suggests outbreak could peak around April 19

Apr 1, 2020, 5:04 AM | Updated: 9:52 am

Mirian Fuentes (L), a medical assistant, and nurse Laurie Kuypers check paperwork during a COVID-19...

Mirian Fuentes (L), a medical assistant, and nurse Laurie Kuypers check paperwork during a COVID-19 screening at an appointment-only drive-up clinic set up by the UW Medical Center. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)

(Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)

The state Department of Health is trying to figure out how to process the immense amount of testing data that has crippled its reporting system. But the Chief Science Officer with the DOH said they’re working closely with researchers.

UW leading study on hydroxychloroquine’s effect on COVID-19

In fact, the University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluations has used Washington’s death data to model the trajectory of the outbreak.

“Their model suggests that the outbreak in Washington state will peak around April 19,” Kathy Lofy said. “This is the point when we might see the highest number of cases.”

Lofy said they’re using this data to help prepare the local health care system for an influx of patients.

While the “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order that Gov. Inslee announced last Monday has been in effect for a week, Lofy said she knows many people have been at home for longer than that. And she knows it’s not easy to do.

“Since we’re not seeing exponential growth, we do believe that our social distancing measures are having some impact in slowing down the spread of the virus,” Lofy said. “It is extremely important that we all continue to stay home and stay healthy. If we don’t, we will very likely see a large increase in the number of cases.”

While we wait for the DOH’s website and reporting process to catch up to the data load, Lofy analyzed the latest case numbers. She said that through most of March about 6-7% COVID-19 tests were positive per day. But in the past few days, that number been closer to 8-9%.

“This suggested an increase in COVID-19 activity in the state,” Lofy said.

She went on to say that the outbreak looks different in different areas of the state. The number of patients who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 is rapidly increasing in some counties compared to others.

Latest coronavirus updates

DOH said negative test results for COVID-19 are overwhelming the reporting tool. It is investigating solutions, including a separate tool for negative results (93% of the data) and automating deduplication work performed manually each day.

Local News

Echo Glen juvenile...

Kate Stone

Echo Glen juvenile escapees to remain in custody in Seattle

All seven juvenile escapees from Echo Glen Children's Center will remain in custody in Seattle, following a judge's ruling.

1 day ago

seattle housing levy...

Frank Sumrall

$970M Seattle Housing Levy moves forward, awaits vote

Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda -- alongside a series of affordable housing developers -- announced the renewal of the Seattle Housing Levy.

1 day ago


Frank Sumrall

Capitol Hill sandwich spot HoneyHole embroiled in controversy

HoneyHole has become the subject of controversy among its employees who have been distraught and unhappy with new leadership.

1 day ago

Federal Way light rail...

Micki Gamez

Federal Way Link light rail extension delayed until 2026

Federal Way can't catch a break from Sound Transit. Link light rail service will be delayed another year, until 2026.

1 day ago


Bill Kaczaraba

SB I-405 in Renton reopen after rollover collision causes delays

All lanes of southbound I-405 at SR 900 in Renton were blocked Wednesday afternoon after a serious two-car rollover collision.

1 day ago

auburn apartment shot...

L.B. Gilbert

Man shot at Auburn apartment, police say multiple people involved

A man was left in critical condition after being shot at an Auburn apartment building Tuesday night, according to police.

1 day ago

Sponsored Articles

Internet Washington...

Major Internet Upgrade and Expansion Planned This Year in Washington State

Comcast is investing $280 million this year to offer multi-gigabit Internet speeds to more than four million locations.

Compassion International...

Brock Huard and Friends Rally Around The Fight for First Campaign

Professional athletes are teaming up to prevent infant mortality and empower women at risk in communities facing severe poverty.

Emergency Preparedness...

Prepare for the next disaster at the Emergency Preparedness Conference

Being prepared before the next emergency arrives is key to preserving businesses and organizations of many kinds.

SHIBA volunteer...

Volunteer to help people understand their Medicare options!

If you’re retired or getting ready to retire and looking for new ways to stay active, becoming a SHIBA volunteer could be for you!

safety from crime...

As crime increases, our safety measures must too

It's easy to be accused of fearmongering regarding crime, but Seattle residents might have good reason to be concerned for their safety.

Comcast Ready for Business Fund...

Ilona Lohrey | President and CEO, GSBA

GSBA is closing the disparity gap with Ready for Business Fund

GSBA, Comcast, and other partners are working to address disparities in access to financial resources with the Ready for Business fund.

UW model suggests outbreak could peak around April 19