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The latest coronavirus numbers from UW’s prediction model

UW Medicine workers. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)

While the coronavirus continues to spread across the U.S., things may finally be looking up here in Washington state, according to the latest numbers from UW’s predictive model.

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In late March, UW’s model predicted the state could see almost 1,400 coronavirus-related deaths by early June, with total cases peaking around April 19. As of Monday, it now expects the death toll by June to be around 632 people, having already reached its peak on April 2.

April 2 was also the date UW says Washington reached its peak need for medical resources, getting through that period without shortages of hospital or ICU beds, but still needing 157 ventilators.

Meanwhile, data from the Washington State Department of Health appears to suggest that the state reached its peak in daily cases between March 31 and April 2.

While this is all represents good news for the state as it deals with its outbreak, UW’s modeling is based on Washington continuing “full social distancing” all the way through May. Health officials have also been cautious in their optimism, stressing the need for preventative measures to continue if recent progress is to be maintained.

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“The main takeaway here is though we’ve made some great headway, our progress is precarious and insufficient,” Seattle-King County Public Health’s Jeff Duchin said recently.

This comes as Washington’s stay-at-home order was recently extended to May 4, while schools continue to consider closures that might last the rest of the academic year.

Nationwide, UW’s model expects the U.S. to reach its peak in deaths around April 16, reaching 81,000 by June 1, and paired with massive shortages of hospital beds and ventilators.

UW’s numbers are also subject to change as more data arrives.

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