UW study: Washington could see 1,400 coronavirus deaths by June
Mar 27, 2020, 12:01 PM | Updated: Oct 8, 2024, 7:16 am
A new study out of the University of Washington predicts that the state could see almost 1,400 coronavirus deaths by early June, peaking at 27 deaths a day by late April.
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The study also predicts that Washington state’s outbreak will likely peak by April 19.
As of Thursday, March 27, there were 147 confirmed deaths in the state, which would make UW’s prediction an over 850% increase between that date and June.
UW’s study also predicts that 41 out of 50 states will require more ICU beds than they’ll have the capacity for, and that 11 states “may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs.” Washington was among those 41 states, requiring 437 ICU beds at the outbreak’s predicted April 19 peak, but having just 341 available.
Through all this, Washington Sen. Patty Murray called for continued efforts to curb the spread of the virus. That runs counter to recent statements from President Trump, who has intimated that he hopes to gradually relax social distancing measures county-by-county across the U.S., while targeting Easter on April 12 to have the nation almost fully reopened.
“The data is clear, the worst thing we could do at this critical moment is call off the fight early, lose the progress our families and communities have fought so hard to make, and worsen and extend this crisis,” Sen. Murray said in a news release. “People in my state and across the country have made incredible personal sacrifices to help slow the spread of this disease—now is not the time to retreat and let those efforts go to waste.”
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UW’s forecast was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center housed at the University, and founded in 2007 by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
The model it used to make its projections were based on the assumption that there would be “continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies.”
