‘Strong evidence’ social distancing measures are working in Washington
Apr 9, 2020, 12:01 PM
A sign posted at a Seattle Costco warehouse. (MyNorthwest photo)
(MyNorthwest photo)
As coronavirus projections in Washington state continue to improve, recent data shows us the progress is thanks in large part to the state’s stringent social distancing measures.
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“In many ways, this should be entirely obvious, but we now have strong evidence that social distancing results in decreased transmission rates,” Seattle Fred Hutchinson scientist Trevor Bedford stated on Twitter.
Bedford points to a handful of models that track the state’s “effective reproduction number” — essentially a number value measuring how widely the infection is spreading. In King County, that number decreased from 3.5 to just 1 between late February and mid-March, directly correlating to an ongoing increase in social distancing measures.
@niket_h_thakkar and colleagues at @IDMOD_ORG estimate that Re decreased significantly in King County, Washington, from ~3.5 to just over 1 from late-Feb to mid-March. https://t.co/U2cP4rrsQs 5/7 pic.twitter.com/ASK4hTeu8C
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) April 9, 2020
“As expected, but helpful to see, is a tight connection between people’s mobility patterns … and the transmission of the virus, again suggesting that social distancing works,” he noted.
As that effective reproduction number has fallen in other regions across the globe, so too have total case numbers.
This comes as local leaders have pointed out that the recent slowing of the virus’ spread in Washington state doesn’t mean we’re in the clear yet. The University of Washington’s own model — that shows the state’s outbreak waning in the months ahead — based its predictions on stringent social distancing measures continuing all the way through May.
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“It’s largely dependent on how well we continue to maintain social distancing practices,“ said State Health Officer Kathy Lofy during a Monday press briefing. “Most of the population is still susceptible to COVID-19 or is not immune yet, so if we let up on social distancing practices, we will likely see an increase in activity.”
