Washington state warns COVID-19 risk is still high, no herd immunity yet

Though the case numbers are declining in Washington state, it’s not time to let the coronavirus guard down. A new report from the state Department of Health says the COVID-19 risk is still high due to a lack of herd immunity.

Most people are still susceptible to COVID-19 since they have not yet been infected. With no vaccine and no widespread built-in immunity from having had the illness, there is not the herd immunity seen with diseases like measles.

“The risk is still high because a very small proportion of the population of Washington has immunity to COVID-19,” said Dr. Cathy Wasserman, state epidemiologist for non-infectious conditions. “So we’re all still largely susceptible to COVID-19 and we need to remain vigilant.”

Also of chief concern is the state’s R-naught number, which is the average number of people each coronavirus patient infects. Statewide, the R-naught number is around one — about 0.94 in Eastern Washington and 1.07 in Western Washington.

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Wasserman said it ideally needs to be below one. If it remained at one that would mean each sick person would be replaced by a new sick person, and the cases would plateau.

“If that effective reproductive number is under one, then you’re infecting fewer than one [person],” she said. “And so you’re not replacing the cases, and so the virus is declining.”

Whitman County is a big COVID-19 hotspot right now due to the Pullman outbreak at Washington State University. There are also recent increases in southwest Washington’s Lewis County and Eastern Washington’s Adams County. In Western Washington, young people under 18 and between 25-39 are seeing upticks in positive cases.

Central Washington counties that saw spikes over the summer, such as Yakima, Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan, are going down now.

Going into autumn, Washingtonians are facing not only the normal flu season, but also colder weather that will throw a wrench in the socially-distanced means of getting together outdoors that have taken place over the summer. More than ever, Wasserman said, it will be imperative to take precautions like wearing a mask, staying home as much as possible, and keeping gatherings rare and with no more than a total of five people.

“We know that this is really hard, and we do need to continue to take all of those concerted actions,” she said. “The health of our loved ones, our neighbors, and our colleagues really depends on all of us stepping up and doing our part.”

To read the department’s full report, click here.

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