Virologist: Phase 2 rollback ‘bit of a blunt hammer,’ but necessary

A rollback to Phase 2 takes effect on Friday for Cowlitz, Pierce, and Whitman counties. But why target wide swathes of populations at the county level rather than using more focused, city-level restrictions?

University of Washington virologist Dr. Keith Jerome spoke to KIRO Radio’s Dave Ross to explain.

Gov. Inslee defends decision to roll three counties back to Phase 2

As Dr. Jerome points out, while it is possible to collect enough data to at least have some idea of where rising case rates may be occurring within a county, it’s also difficult to use that data to enact smaller-scale, effective restrictions.

“The problem is that it doesn’t necessarily give you something to do going forward,” he pointed out. “If you identify that this particular restaurant had a transmission case, but you find out that they were actually doing everything right, then what’s the recommendation that actually makes things any better than they were? It’s a tough place.”

On the other end of the spectrum, enacting a statewide move back to Phase 2 doesn’t target rises in new cases and hospitalizations enough, leaving a county rollback as the best and only option.

“You end up with a little bit of a blunt hammer, which is, I think what you’re seeing here,” he described. “It has to sort of happen at the county level.”

“Obviously, that is substantially more fine-grained than a statewide rollback,” he added.

Gee & Ursula: What can the state do instead of a rollback to Phase 2?

Despite that, the decision to move three counties down a phase has been met with criticism from local leaders, who have argued that reducing capacity from the 50% allowed in Phase 3 down to 25% in Phase 2 will cost jobs and livelihoods at a crucial time.

For Dr. Jerome, he understands why counties would feel shortchanged by the rollback, but also acknowledges that it may very well be a necessity with cases rising across Washington.

“Really, the last thing anybody wants to do is roll back into more strict limits,” he noted. “Statewide, leaders don’t want to do that because it’s unpopular. When they do it, I think the sense is that it’s important and unfortunate, but necessary.”

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