Several more weeks of winter despite La Niña’s end
Mar 13, 2023, 11:53 AM
With a third straight La Niña event coming, the odds favor having one or more significant flooding events in Western Washington. (AP Image)
(AP Image)
Could it be? The quite rare three-year run of La Niña has come to an end.
La Niña is when the eastern Pacific Ocean tropical waters — the region west of Peru — are cooler than average. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported that cooler sea surface temperatures in those waters have warmed to near average, ending La Niña.
La Niña, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone
Climate experts note that ‘neutral’ conditions are now in place and expected to continue through the spring into summer.
After that, longer-range guidance suggests that El Niño may develop by this fall and winter. El Niño is when those same eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. However, they note that guidance offered in the spring season is not always reliable.
La Niña usually adjusts how the storm track behaves across the northern Pacific Ocean, spending more time at our latitude in the Pacific Northwest. This weather pattern usually results in cooler and wetter winter seasons, with a healthy mountain snowpack.
That has been the case the past two winters, and this winter has been following suit. After a relatively mild and dry January, recent cooler and wetter weather has returned the mountain snowpack close to average, with several more weeks of winter weather ahead.
The “triple-dip” #LaNina is over! ENSO-neutral conditions expected to persist through spring and into the early summer.
More: https://t.co/fjIdEHvogc pic.twitter.com/qmk5OPW05w— National Weather Service (@NWS) March 9, 2023
The storm track usually involved with El Niño tends to spend more time across the southern tier of the U.S. — from California to the Gulf coast region and the Southeast. This is often good news for water supply in these regions, though heavier precipitation events can result in flooding and landslides in the Golden State.
This winter season has been unique since the storm track has dove south of the Pacific Northwest at times and driven a number of strong wet storms into the Pacific Southwest, resulting in heavy mountain snows, flooding, and landslides.
The latest seasonal outlook for the Pacific Northwest continues tipping the odds for a cooler and wetter than average start to spring, then shifting to around average temperatures and a drier than normal latter part of spring. By summer, the trend adjusts to good odds on warmer than average temperatures and around normal precipitation during our driest time of the year.
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