Fact Check: Are robbers really stalking victims at light rail stations?

Are light rail passengers in Seattle being “stalked” by robbers?

It’s a scary claim that KOMO-TV is making and it needs to be fact checked.

KOMO reports of a serious problem where thieves, working in teams, are looking for folks not paying attention on light rail.

Let’s say you’ve got your head down, eyes glues to your smart phone; maybe listening to the KIRO Radio App, kind of in your own world listening to the crazy things John Curley is saying. Well, these thieves look at you as a target.

And as you exit the light rail, head down looking at that phone, they stalk you like prey and bam! When the time is right, they jump you and they take your phone, wallet, purse or whatever else it is you have on you of worth.

In fact, KOMO reports, “Seattle police have identified several robbery hot spots, most of them close to light rail stations.”

This being such a problem, The South Seattle Crime Prevention Council sent out an email alert with a warning in bold red letters: “PLEASE don’t use electronics on Light Rail.” And they say:

We’ve given this advice many, many times before, but it bears repeating. Most street robberies occur within 300 feet of Light Rail stations or bus stops. Most victims are selected while on mass transit because they were seen using their cell phone, tablet or laptop. Many robberies are a coordinated effort of 2 or more individuals, which include the spotter on the train/bus and the driver of a get away vehicle.

Let’s fact check this.

Are you being stalked by robbers?

The concerns are overstated. This is the exact kind of sensationalized reporting that makes me remind you on my show (weeknights 7pm-10pm on KIRO Radio 97.3 FM) to fact check everything you read, see, or hear because you’re often the victim of misinformation.

The South Precinct, the place where the report warns robbers are stalking light rail passengers, is experiencing a 21 percent decline in robberies year-over-year. And as the SPD points out, there are no statistics for crime “near transit.”

But we can look at their crime data reporting and see seven light rail spots in the area. Only one of them appears to be a “hot spot”; a hot spot that saw the majority of the robberies in the first half of the year, not recently (though it’s true that there seems to be a small month-to-month increase, though not necessarily “near light rail”). It’s also important to note the SPD has managed to arrest three suspects per month.

Not once does the report actually cite any source that suggests robbers are stalking their victims. They don’t include any quotes from the police, nor victims of the alleged stalking robbers. They just say it’s happening, so I guess it must be?

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Now none of this is to suggest that robberies don’t ever occur, nor does it suggest that the advice the South Seattle Crime Prevention Council isn’t valid. But it does suggest that there isn’t a rash of stalking robbers in the area that you should panic over. If there are, they certainly don’t make their case.

The fact is, this KOMO report relies heavily on perception, not facts. People perceive the situation to be worse than it is. And perception is powerful and meaningful, but we should count on hard facts to help correct misconceptions.

And if you carefully read the article, it becomes even more clear they’re trying to freak you out with nothing more than perceptions.

“There were a few times when I felt that I was personally unsafe,” said Tony Le, a daily light rail commuter. Le has never been robbed after riding the train, but he sees the potential on almost every commute. “I see just a lot of people having their eyes on the phone and not on their surroundings.” (emphasis mine)

The guy hasn’t even been robbed, but says he sees potential for people to get robbed? Why? Because people are on their phones? If that leads to the potential to getting robbed, then, well, over half of Washington is at risk of being robbed. Now that’s something to panic about.

There’s no causal effect here, folks. Using your phone doesn’t make you any more or any less likely to be robbed. Other factors are at play, like the time of day, whether or not you look like a threat, etc.

But the report sets the narrative that looking at your phone means you’ll get robbed, and they use that as a springboard to create a story that isn’t quite backed up by facts, but probably got hits.

(Have something for the Jason Rantz Show to fact check? Send us an email here.)