‘The dark side of Washington’: One real estate broker warns the housing market is a canary in the coal mine for the state’s future

Housing supply has surged 28.4% across Washington, climbing to 18,563 active listings, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. One principal broker, Leah Courage of The Courage Group at ONE Realty, warns that Washington’s real estate market is headed for serious trouble.

“I think people appreciate the truth, and I think it’s especially refreshing when you find a real estate agent who’s not trying to just sell you on everything that’s good and great about a community, because there are dark sides,” Courage said on “The John Curley Show.” “We’ve got a video called ‘The Dark Side of Washington State,’ and it really goes into it, and it’s important for people to know. So, if people move here understanding the dark and the light about Washington, then they’re much more informed, and that’s what our goal is.”

Courage shared that the day after Senate Bill 6346 was passed and signed by Governor Bob Ferguson, luxury listings — listings of homes worth more than $2 million — spiked by 65% in one single day, while luxury listing sales are down across the board. Zillow has nearly 300 listings on its website for homes worth between $5 million and $75 million in Washington alone.

“Is the real estate market part of the canary in the coal mine?” Curley asked.

“It is, it’s one of the only leading indicators that we actually have that we can look at and say here’s what’s going to happen,” Courage answered.

High earners leaving WA fast

The exodus of high earners is happening at a rapid pace because of a residency rule: people must establish their primary domicile elsewhere within a certain period (between 12 and 24 months), or the Washington State Department of Revenue will tax them on all income over $1 million, effective by 2028.

“So, what I was saying is you need to get out and get established right now, because they’re changing the rules constantly,” Courage said. “Maybe they roll it back so that it’s more like 2027, but basically, it all starts in 2028. That is when the tax goes into effect, and they start collecting in 2029.”

“Who’s buying? That’s the big question, ‘Curley said. “Who says, “Oh, I love the idea of a millionaire’s tax, I like making sure that the drugs are cheap and the crime is free. I want to live in Seattle.’ Who is that person?”

“It’s a great question, and I’m going to have to get back to you on that, because we’re still collecting,” Courage said.

Watch the full discussion in the video above.

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