Harger: Cut some slack for Seattle weather forecasters

It’s hard to communicate uncertainty, especially when the weather has a mind of its own. That’s why I feel for Seattle meteorologists right now. They’re trying their best to predict a storm that’s as fickle as, well, Seattle weather. And they know that if they get it wrong, people will be cranky tomorrow, accusing them of hyping something up.

There’s a big honkin’ cyclone, the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane, spinning off our coast. We’re expecting a strong windstorm to hit parts of Western Washington later Tuesday afternoon. At least, that’s the forecast. But we can’t rule out the possibility that the storm may not be as powerful as predicted. Maybe it’ll fizzle out. On the flip side, since I started watching this system on Sunday, each new forecast model shows it picking up strength. So that’s possible too.

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On Sunday, I took to social media to advise friends and family on the coast and in the foothills to be ready. Almost immediately, a buddy chimed in about how forecasters overhyped a windstorm a few years ago and how he’ll never forget how badly they messed up back then. It almost sounded like he wouldn’t forgive them, either.

But that’s how odds work, right? There was a significant chance that particular windstorm would happen, but it was also possible the storm would be a bust. And it was a bust. Weather forecasting isn’t an exact science; it’s a game of probabilities. Meteorologists analyze data, interpret models and make educated guesses. Sometimes they’re spot-on, and other times, well, not so much. But isn’t that better than being caught off guard?

One of the legendary weather forecasters in this market, Steve Pool, once wrote a book about this. It’s called “Somewhere I Was Right: Why Northwest Weather Is Predictably Unpredictable.” His point was that even with the most advanced tools known to humankind, weather forecasting around here is a challenge. In his book, he humorously mentions that he has a job where he can be wrong and still keep his employment.

Pool pointed out that while meteorologists east of the Rockies have plenty of data from cities to their west, out here, we mostly have vast stretches of the Pacific Ocean with few data points. This lack of information makes predicting incoming weather systems much more difficult. As he put it, “It’s like trying to see what’s going on inside a house by looking at the roof.”

“If the situation is marginal for some rain to move in, it’s best to mention a chance of rain,” Pool wrote. “There’s nothing worse than predicting a dry, sunny day and then having it rain … if we do predict a chance of rain, and the day ends up partly sunny or at least dry, it’s a bonus day.”

Maybe the windstorm will be severe tonight; maybe it won’t.

So perhaps we should cut our weather folks some slack. They’re not trying to ruin our plans or stir up unnecessary panic. They’re doing their best to keep us informed with the limited information available.

And let’s face it, the Northwest’s unpredictable weather is part of its charm, or at least that’s what we tell ourselves when the forecast goes awry.

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You know, it’s important for meteorologists to give us their best guess because our safety and preparedness really depend on it. Even if the weather’s as unpredictable as a cat on caffeine, their forecasts help us get ready for whatever might come our way.

So let’s not get too upset if they miss the mark, especially if the worst doesn’t happen. After all, it’s better to be ready for a storm that doesn’t hit than caught off guard by one that does.

As we used to say in the Boy Scouts, “Be Prepared.”

That seems like good advice for life, and for whatever happens with the coming storm.

Charlie Harger is the news director for MyNorthwest and KIRO Newsradio. Follow Charlie on X here and email him here.

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