Jake: Uh oh! World Cup hotel bookings a ‘non-event?’

I’ll say it upfront — I’m a massive soccer fan, and I’m genuinely excited to watch the World Cup.

But something I heard recently has me worried, and a Forbes article I just came across suggests my concern is justified.

About a month ago, a hotel industry insider told me something surprising … the huge wave of bookings everyone expected? It wasn’t materializing. The hotels he works with were seeing 60% fewer reservations than anticipated.

For months, we’d been told 750,000 World Cup fans would descend on Seattle and spend close to $1 billion at local hotels and restaurants. Hotels raised their room rates accordingly. If the crowds don’t show, that math gets ugly fast.

I was hoping he was wrong. Then I saw the Forbes piece.

An industry that bet big is now calling the World Cup a ‘non-event’

According to the American Hotel & Lodging Association, 80% of hotels across the 11 host cities are describing room bookings as a “non-event.”

That’s a gut punch for an entire hospitality industry that bet big on these tourists’ predictions. How could they be so off?

Here’s the thing — I always had doubts about those 750,000 visitor projections. The numbers just don’t add up.

Lumen Field (temporarily renamed Seattle Stadium for broadcast rights during the tournament) holds a maximum of 72,000 fans per match. Multiply that by six matches, and you’ve got roughly 430,000 available match tickets.

So what exactly were the other 300,000 projected visitors supposed to do here? Why make the trip if you’re not watching a game?

That gap always bothered me, and I think we’re starting to get the answer: they simply might not come.

There’s a bigger picture worth examining, too. When a nation bids to host the World Cup, it makes sweeping promises to FIFA — infrastructure upgrades, stadium renovations, and financial commitments. It’s a pattern that rhymes uncomfortably with Olympic host cities, where massive public investment frequently fails to deliver the promised economic returns.

The spotlight is real. The return on investment often isn’t.

I genuinely hope I’m wrong. I want to see Seattle buzzing with international fans spending money at every corner. But if Forbes and my insider source are both right, a lot of public energy, money, and tax dollars will have gone into preparing for crowds that never materialized.

The whole justification for hosting rested on those huge visitor numbers. Here’s hoping they still show up.

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