Dr. Jeff Duchin: ‘We’re not exactly where we need to be’ to reopen WA

Seattle-King County Public Health’s Jeff Duchin spoke out this week about how prepared Washington is to reopen, noting that even with the outbreak waning, it’s not yet time to relax social distancing measures.

County health officials agree ‘there’s still a long way to go’

“We’re not exactly where we need to be yet in my opinion, but we’ve definitely moved a long way in the right direction,” Dr. Duchin stated.

Recent predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME) indicate that by around May 18, Washington could be ready to begin reopening.

That said, IHME researchers have also warned that they would “certainly not make a decision just based on our model.” That’s a sentiment shared by Duchin.

“No one should take these findings as an indication to relax our social distancing strategy at this time,” he pointed out. “The threat of a rebound that could overwhelm the healthcare system remains if we let up too soon.”

Dr. Duchin pointed to the 1918 influenza pandemic as an example of what happens when social distancing measures are relaxed too early, describing a second wave of illnesses, that emerged after the end of World War I saw restrictions lifted. That second wave lasted several months, something that he identifies as “a sobering lesson” for our health officials today.

Study looks at chance of social distancing continuing through 2022

In terms of what exactly the state will need to reopen, he outlined a handful of factors that state and county leaders will be looking at. That includes:

• A “steady decrease” in the number of new cases and hospitalizations for at least two weeks
• Ensuring our health care system is well-supplied in the event of a significant rebound
• Widespread rapid testing and reporting of patients, “to decrease community spread of infection”
• An increase ability from public health agencies to “do a large number of thorough case and contact investigations” to identify and trace new infections
• Availability of proven treatments and therapies to mitigate the negative effects of the virus in patients

Should the state reopen too quickly, Duchin warns that the consequences won’t simply be health-related, with the potential to keep businesses shut down as well. Beyond that, he advocated for continued economic aid as social distancing measures remain in place.

“If people cannot practice social distancing or stay in isolation and quarantine because they fear losing their jobs, or because there is no one to help them get the food or medication they need, not only will they be at increased risk for infection but it will prolong and worsen the outbreak for all of us,” he detailed.

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