Key races to watch in Washington with one week to get ballots in

Are we in for a Red Wave in the 2022 mid-term election? Or will Americans firmly opposed to MAGA politics of former President Donald Trump and his supporters go blue in an attempt to keep such ideology at bay? Perhaps the sagging approval numbers for President Joe Biden will drag other Democrats down. Where does the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe decision factor into the election? Or gun control with the post-pandemic return of mass shootings?

The truth is you can find a poll somewhere to match whatever hope it is you hold in answer to those questions and we won’t truly know the answer until the votes are tabulated.

It’s clear many candidates also don’t know exactly how those issues and events such as the January 6 attack and economic concerns will impact voters’ decisions. Then there is the question of whether younger voters who make up a huge percentage of the blue base but tend to turn out to vote much less for mid-terms will have sufficient concern to lure them to the ballot box.

Even in traditionally blue states such as Washington, there is a lack of confidence in races where there would not have been in previous elections.

On the national stage there are a few key races being watched in Washington State.

Top billing: Murray-D vs Smiley-R fight it out 

At the top of your ballot, you’ll find the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Patty Murray and Republican newcomer Tiffany Smiley.

Tiffany Smiley pushes for debate with Patty Murray in U.S. Senate Race

“Senator Patty Murray started running negative ads attacking Tiffany in June, which for a 30-year incumbent to go out and drop over a million dollars, basically lying about her opponent and attacking them is interesting and I think showed that they were at least somewhat concerned,” said State Republican Party Chair Caleb Heimlich.

“It’ll be interesting to see over the next two weeks where that one stands,” he added.

Democrats were mostly confident in the 71-year-old Senator who is seeking her 6th term as Senator.

“Look, a lot of money is coming in Tiffany Smiley’s campaign coffers from outside actors primarily outside of the state of Washington. She’s a Trump-loving MAGA Republican,” Democratic State Party Chair Tina Podlidowski said. “And she’s raised almost as much as Herschel Walker has raised in Georgia. So that should be concerning to all sorts of folks. But what they shouldn’t be concerned about is who stands for families and veterans and kids and women in this state. And that’s Senator Patty Murray.”

But Democrats are in no way saying this thing is a done deal.

“We think Senator Murray has a tough race ahead of her but we know that it’s a race that she’s going to win, but no one should take anything for granted in that race,” said Podlidowski.

A recent Seattle Times poll put Murray about 18 points ahead of Smiley. Smiley’s reaction to that news when asked by KTTH’s Jason Rantz recently, “I am not worried one bit about that poll,” Smiley said, noting she had outraised Murray’s campaign in the first quarter and expected to do so again in the second.

Both campaigns reported raising about $2.6 million for the second quarter shortly after that interview.

But Murray has certainly been more visible at this point in the election, holding multiple press conferences on key issues like Roe and gun safety, among many others. She also recently wrapped a two-week cross-state campaign tour where she was asked about her confidence level in her ability to hold the seat.

“I always say every election is the most important. I feel that from the bottom of my soul, our democracy is at stake in this election, our ability to cast our votes and fight for what we think is important, and to work to solve the complex problems we have today. Not with sound bites, but with real solutions. That’s what’s on the ballot today and every vote counts, every vote matters. And I am looking forward to going back and working with all these great people to continue to help put Washington first,” she replied.

Senator Murray gave a more direct answer when asked by KIRO 7 whether she was worried about losing the race.

Absolutely not,” she answered. “What I’m focused on is making sure Washington state voters know what their choice is.”

The Murray-Smiley race is statewide so every voter in Washington has a chance to decide this one.

Hobbs facing 8-person gauntlet in Secretary of State Race

The other statewide race also could be interesting as Republicans attempt to retake the Secretary of State chair. Former state Senator – and moderate Democrat – Steve Hobbs was appointed to the office following Republican Kim Wyman’s early exit when she took a post in the other Washington.

Hobbs’ appointment marked the first time a Democrat had held the state’s top election post in nearly 60 years and there will be no shortage of democrats attempting to retake it from him.

It’s a crowded race with eight candidates, including Hobbs, another Democrat, four Republicans, a non-partisan, and one candidate who says he prefers the “union“ party.

So far the top three money raisers are Hobbs, who has raised the most at $392,974, followed by Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson, who is running without party affiliation citing her very strong belief that political parties do not belong in the Secretary of State’s Office, at $159,745. One of the four Republicans is in third for money raised– former state lawmaker Mark Miloscia –who currently heads up the conservative Family Policy Institute. He’s raised $57,955.

The three other Republicans in the race include state Senator Keith Wagoner, health care data scientist Bob Hagglund, and Tamborine Borrelli who serves as Director of Washington Election Integrity Coalition United which has sued county elections offices over the belief the 2020 election was fraudulent. Rounding out the eight candidates are Democrat Marquez Tiggs and Kurtis Engle who prefers the “union” party and warns in his voter’s guide statement that, “if certain dominoes fall certain ways, we could have half a million Chinese troops in Western Washington.”

Election security, voter trust, and misinformation are central to the campaign issues in this race.

“I think that Steve Hobbs has done a terrific job as Secretary of State. He has incredible experience and background in cybersecurity issues, which everyone is thinking about when it comes to our voting system,” Democratic State Party Chair Tina Podlidowski said. “He continues the tradition of having a safe and secure all mail-in ballots system.”

‘Violation of my First Amendment rights,’ House candidate says of removal of election surveillance signs

“But he also was doing the work around disinformation,” she continued. “I think what we’re seeing the Republicans do by trying to do things like surveille ballot boxes or intimidate voters in that different way, is to keep people from turning in their ballots.”

“We have not endorsed in that race,” said GOP state Chair Caleb Heimlich. “That will be interesting to see kind of who emerges in that in the top two, kind of a wide-open field statewide.”

Schrier fights to hold seat in 8th district

Another race where Republicans have yet to endorse a candidate is the 8th Congressional District seat which is among the top contents to watch on the national stage as Democrat Kim Schrier tries to hold the seat she snagged from Republicans in 2018 flipping it blue for the first time since it was created in 1983.

Republicans want back the seat they had long held.

“We’ve got three primary Republicans running that are raising money,” Heimlich said, referring to Reagan Dunn, a longtime King County Councilmember whose late mother held the seat from 1993-2005. Matt Larkin who previously had an unsuccessful run at taking the state Attorney General’s seat and Republican State Rep. Jesse Jensen.

“Republicans are only five seats away from winning the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The eighth congressional district is rated as a toss-up by most national prognosticators. So there’s going to be lots of money pouring in lots of resources there and ultimately, obviously, it’s up to the people that vote. But I’m anxious to see who emerges on the Republican side, who the Republican voters prefer, and who they select. We have not made an endorsement in that race and so after the primary, we will try and rally support behind that challenger and that’s a big chance for us to flip the seat,” Heimlich explained.

While many have pointed to Dunn as the front runner to challenge Schrier, Heimlich is not so sure just yet.

“Maybe, maybe, I mean, he’s obviously on the King County Council. He’s got the name ID but when you look at money raised so far through the June 30 Federal Elections Commission filings Jesse Jensen has actually raised more money than Reagan. And then Matt Larkin has invested a pretty significant sum of his own money. I think he’s given himself either 500 or $700,000. And so there I think that three of them are actually closer than maybe people think,” explained Heimlich.

Republican Matt Larkin to run against Rep. Schrier in 8th district

Democrats admit it will be a tough race for Schrier but expressed confidence in her ability to hold the seat, which has been a tight contest for her every time.

“Kim has a tough district. It is still a district that leans democratic but by a sliver, so we’re not taking anything for granted,” said Podlidowski.

“But Kim Schrier since 2018 has delivered for the people of the eighth congressional district,” she added. “She has done more town halls, she’s delivered more on agricultural issues, on infrastructure issues on things like drug pricing, $35 insulin, for example, than Republicans have done in decades of holding that office … We are confident no matter which of the anti-choice Republican men, the only female doctor in the Congress is running against in the general election. Dr. Kim Schrier is going to come out ahead.”

3rd and 4th district elections

Other congressional races where incumbents are at risk include the 3rd Congressional District where Jaime Hererra-Beutler is facing backlash over her vote to impeach President Donald Trump and the Fourth where Dan Newhouse has similar concerns.

Washington GOP Rep. Newhouse: Investigation into Capitol riot needs ‘balanced approach’

“The 3rd is a very interesting race in that the Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera-Beutler is having quite a challenge from the far right, the Trump supported candidate Joe Kent. We’ve got a terrific candidate, a woman who’s a small business person, Maria Perez, who’s running in that particular race,” Podlidowski said.

“It’s quite possible Maria makes it into the general. The question is, who is she going to be running against? Is it Jamie or is it Joe Kent? And if it’s Joe, Kent Well, I can’t imagine that the people of Southwest Washington want a MAGA loving Trump supporting GOP Republican in office around those different things,” she added “So that’ll be an interesting race.

“In the 4th Congressional District, Doug White is definitely doing everything that he possibly can to win that race. Another fourth-generation farmer from the Yakima area, who went out, created his own business has worked around the globe and understands the trade issues of the Fourth Congressional District and their agricultural products,” Podlidowski said. “So he’s giving Dan Newhouse and a couple of MAGA-loving Republicans Brad Klippert and Lauren Culp who still hasn’t conceded the gubernatorial race, a run for their money in the fourth. So potential pickups in both those races for Democrats.”

But Republicans see the third as most likely a Republican vs Republican contest.

“The Democrat is not particularly strong or raising a lot of resources. So most of the focus has been on the Republican candidate side. And so again, we’ll see who comes through over the next two weeks,” Heimlich said.

“I mean, there’s a chance two Republicans go through in the third with our top-two primary. But there’s also a chance that the Democrat snags one of the two top spots, and then it’s whoever gets the most votes in August, will be in a very good position to hold on to that seat because as I said, the Democrats have not put up a lot of opposition or put a lot of focus into trying to flip that seat. So in the third, and in the fourth in Central Washington, it’s more of a primary campaign to see who comes through on the Republican side,” he added.
Follow Hanna Scott on Twitter or email her here. 

Follow @https://twitter.com/HannaKIROFM