Time for a reality check: Arena not a done deal

Sonics fans have had 24 hours now to celebrate the possible return of the NBA to Seattle with word that a tentative deal has been reached with investor Chris Hansen. But now it’s time for a little reality check. People were talking on Tuesday like this is a done deal, and it isn’t.

There’s a lot that still has to happen before 3-pointers and monster jams return to Seattle.

The giddiness over the announcement even got to the writers at the Associated Press who mistakenly published its story which read “the Seattle City Council has agreed to a deal that would build a $490 million arena that could host NBA and NHL teams.”

The council hasn’t agreed to anything, yet. Key members of the council have, but does the full council have the five votes needed to make that headline correct? Probably. But until the council votes, nothing is guaranteed.

Even the voice of the Sonics, Kevin Calabro, told us he’s not counting his flying chickens until they’re in the barnyard on this one.

“I don’t assume anything is a done deal until the vote is actually cast,” he said.

A city council committee is expected to vote on this Thursday. A full council vote is expected later this month. The King County Council must also approve the changes.

There are a few other roadblocks to this deal as its sits today.

The Port of Seattle is still standing in the way. It’s still not sure the SoDo area can handle another arena and the congestion that comes with it. Though the Port’s Peter McGraw says the new pieces of this deal are a good step.

“We think this is a good start,” McGraw said of the changes this latest deal made with the $40 million in transportation improvements in SoDo. “We appreciate the city council’s efforts to revise the original arena proposal to respond to our concerns.”

But the Port still has to review it.

State rep Judy Clibborn who heads the House Transportation Committee, who was originally against the deal, is now on board, but only if the Port’s concerns are handled.

“We will be watching carefully this process to make sure that it works for all of our concerns,” she said.

Though the state isn’t an official player in the game, it does have the political clout to move the sides around if it wants to.

There are potential legal challenges as well. There are some who still believe this potential deal doesn’t meet the standard set by Seattle voters when they passed I-91 in 2006. That initiative requires arena deals like this make money for taxpayers.

But Seattle Council member Mike O’Brien believes this deal puts that argument to bed.

“You can look to the $7 million Key Arena fund, the $40 million transportation fund and the option to sell to force him [Chris Hansen] to buy the arena for $200 million at the end of the term,” he said. “Any one of those alone would meet the I-91 requirements. Combined I think there’s no doubt.”

Then there is the Environmental Impact Study. That will take at least a year, and even if the city council and then the King County Council sign off on this deal it could still scuttle the plan.

And of course, Chris Hansen still has to buy and relocate a team.

Sorry to be a splash of cold water, but there’s still a long road ahead before the region can say “The NBA is coming back.”

Enjoy Hansen’s free beer Thursday night F.X. McRory’s, and celebrate this latest development. Just don’t get too far ahead of yourselves.