UW modeler: Yearly surges could make COVID a ‘persistent and seasonal’ affair

Despite vaccine distribution continuing to ramp up both in Washington and the rest of the country, the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation believes herd immunity against COVID-19 could be difficult to permanently achieve, leading to the chance of yearly surges of cases.

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In a blog post published last week, the IHME warned that despite “growing optimism and hope” that we’ll see a sizable decline in COVID deaths and hospitalizations by the spring, those expectations “must be tempered by several factors.”

Given the difficulty in predicting how future variant strains will respond to vaccines, the IHME says winter surges in COVID cases “may become the norm.” That makes the possibility of the virus becoming a “persistent and seasonal” affair a real consideration.

That feeds into concerns over the rise in variant strains that are more resistant to existing vaccines. That includes the B.1.351 variant, first identified in South Africa. While both Moderna and Pfizer’s vaccines have proven to be effective against variants, Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine, which typically boasts an 85% effectiveness rate, has that number drop to 70% when tested against the B.1.351 variant.

“Recurrent seasonal COVID-19 could require both health system change and profound cultural adjustment for the life of high-risk individuals in the winter months,” the IHME said.

The percentage of a population that needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity varies based on the disease. As the World Health Organization points out, herd immunity against measles requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated, while polio requires an 80% threshold. It’s unknown at this point what the vaccine threshold might be for COVID-19, but most estimates range between 70% and 90%.

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First and foremost, the sheer numbers are working against the United States. None of the COVID-19 vaccines currently in use are authorized for use in children, meaning that roughly 75% of Americans are able to be immunized. Because not everyone has expressed a willingness to be vaccinated, the amount of people who will actually end up receiving doses will likely be below that minimum 70% herd immunity threshold.

To mitigate against this, the IHME advises ensuring that in coming years, we’re prepared for future testing and tracing efforts, medical and public health responses, and socioeconomic relief programs.

That could also potentially include having states make yearly COVID-19 vaccines mandatory, requiring masks in select winter months where cases are expected to peak, and “moving meetings or classes with attendance above a certain number to digital platforms.”

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