Will the ‘Friday jump’ save Katie Wilson? Seattle awaits crucial ballot drop to decide mayoral race

Friday, and the 4 p.m. ballot drop, will be a strong predictor for who the next mayor will be.

When King County Elections’ Friday ballot counts drop later this afternoon, the numbers should indicate whether Bruce Harrell’s 5.7-point lead is insurmountable or if Katie Wilson is mounting one of those classic Seattle progressive comebacks we’ve seen before.

Currently, Harrell leads 52.6% to 46.9%. Wilson needs to win about 55% of the remaining approximate 100,000 ballots to pull ahead. She won Thursday’s batch with just 51.6%, which had some progressives reaching for the Rolaids.

The ‘Friday jump’

But, according to political analyst (and Katie Wilson supporter) Ron Davis, everyone needs to calm down.

“While there are certainly some reasons to be concerned, I think the evidence still clearly suggests that the odds favor Katie Wilson,” Davis wrote in a widely circulated blog post Thursday. “I don’t believe this is cope.”

Davis’ confidence comes from what he calls the “Friday Jump,” a phenomenon where progressive candidates don’t just inch forward, but surge ahead when Friday’s ballots are counted. He’s done the homework, digging through past election data posted by a Fred Hutch computational biologist named Daniel Jones.

“In fact, Cary Moon’s share of the votes counted on Friday was 9% higher than the votes counted on Thursday. Gonzales’ was 5%,” Davis noted, referring to previous mayoral races. “Every single one of those numbers is high enough for Wilson to win.”

Strong words. But is he right?

Reading the tea leaves with AI

Using AI analysis to extrapolate from Davis’ research, we can identify what to watch for when those 4 p.m. numbers drop.

According to King County, approximately 220,000 votes still need to be counted. Of course, not all of those ballots will be from Seattle — only an estimated 100,000. If fewer than 15,000 Seattle ballots are counted on Friday, that would be too small a sample size to gain any further insight into the mayoral race.

If between 15,000 and 30,000 Seattle ballots are counted Friday, the conclusion of the mayoral race could be revealed. Wilson could turn the tide in voting if she logs 55% or better in Friday’s dump. If she’s stuck between 51% to 52%, the “Friday Jump” Davis is banking on won’t happen.

If more than 30,000 Seattle ballots are processed Friday, KIRO Newsradio’s analysis suggests that Wilson is likely Seattle’s next mayor if she clears 56%. If she can’t break 53%, Harrell is likely to win.

Davis made sure to share that “anomalies are always possible.”

“I’m not predicting anything with any kind of certainty,” Davis wrote.

Every election has its quirks. The 2025 electorate may be different from those in 2017 or 2021. Maybe the mail-in patterns have shifted. Maybe that surge in drop-box voting on Election Day came from different demographics than usual.

Davis addressed some of the anxiety in a follow-up post on Thursday evening, after the modest numbers from that afternoon spooked progressives.

“If history is any guide, we should find today encouraging,” Davis wrote.

But that’s the key phrase: “if history is any guide.”

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

Follow @https://twitter.com/kirocharlie