Analysis: Trump has defied political consequences for years. The midterms changed that
Nov 4, 2026, 2:00 AM
WASHINGTON (AP) — For more than a decade, Donald Trump defied the rules of politics that applied to everyone else.
No more.
Tuesday’s elections were a categorical repudiation of a Republican president who has spent the first half of his second term governing without regard to consequences, imposing unilateral tariffs that undermined the economy and starting a war that spiked fuel prices and angered Americans who did not approve of U.S. involvement in the kind of Middle East conflict he had promised to avoid. On top of that, he earned billions in outside investments and focused on Washington renovations that showed little empathy for those struggling financially.
Having survived scandal, impeachments and a criminal conviction, Trump approached the midterms as yet another hurdle he could clear with the sheer force of his personality, insisting the economy was fine and the war in Iran was needed to avoid nuclear war.
This time, he couldn’t make the sale and voters forcefully rejected him.
“Let’s just be clear about what happened last night,” outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said Wednesday. “This is close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country.”
The result had echoes of 1974, when Republicans in seats thought to be safe were tossed out by voters revolting against Nixon-era scandals, and even 1994, when Republicans retook the House and the damage to Democrats was so great that it swept up Speaker Tom Foley, unseated by little-known Republican George Nethercutt in Washington state.
“This is Watergate material,” said Democrat Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor, congressman and White House chief of staff who is a potential 2028 presidential candidate, in an interview. “And the through line from Watergate to now is, breaking news, the American people hate corruption in public officials.”
In the Senate, Democrats will soon represent longtime Republican bastions such as South Carolina, Texas and Kansas. A Black woman will hold the governorship of Georgia, a state that was both the heart of the Confederacy and the soul of the Civil Rights Movement. A Latina will become governor of Texas, where Trump’s strict immigration enforcement has rocked communities from the Rio Grande Valley to Houston.
For Democrats who have learned to temper their expectations after painful losses, the magnitude of Tuesday’s results was hard to comprehend.
As votes were still being counted, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia and Gina Hinojosa in Texas posted dominant victories in governor’s races where even the rosiest outlooks found them narrowly winning. James Talarico similarly dispatched Republican Ken Paxton with relative ease to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
The victories were of such a scale that they might mark a profound pivot in American politics.
Even Trump, who still refuses to accept his loss in the 2020 presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden, didn’t dispute the results. Democrats who will control the House and Senate beginning in 2027 can claim a mandate to shift Washington in a new direction.
“We knew that the chaos and corruption in Washington (were) hurting our people,” said Roy Cooper, the Democrat who flipped a Senate seat in North Carolina. “Today, you said this has to stop. And as your new United States senator, I am ready to take that message to Washington.”
Claiming a mandate and executing on it, though, are two very different things and Democrats will have difficulty delivering on policy promises so long as Trump holds the power of the veto.
But Trump can no longer rely on compliant Republican leaders to acquiesce. Those in his party who lost are likely to become more openly critical in their remaining months in office.
The reordering of power in Washington has the potential to be the signal that the era of Trump’s dominance is waning.
Republicans whom Trump expressly lifted to the ballot and campaigned fiercely for, including Darline Graham in South Carolina, Michael Whatley in North Carolina and Paxton, lost. The coalition of young, Black and Latino voters that propelled Trump two years ago swung decisively to Democrats.
Trump pumped more than $250 million into Republican campaigns, and millions more came from donors like Elon Musk, and it wasn’t enough to fend off losses. The coarse brand of politics that the president has long heralded met its limits, notably in Ohio, where Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate for governor, hoped an ad featuring negative comments from the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Dr. Amy Acton, would revive his campaign.
Acton won and Ramaswamy was not particularly gracious in defeat.
“I have to tell you I have some serious concerns about the future direction of our country,” he said.
That was the exception to the Republican tenor on Tuesday.
In Wisconsin, Tom Tiffany, who objected to certification of the 2020 presidential election, conceded defeat to David Crowley in the governor’s race. Trump was also unusually congratulatory of Democrats, saying the party did a “good job” and blaming GOP candidates for their loss.
Sen. John Cornyn, whom Trump refused to endorse in the Texas primary against Paxton, applauded Talarico and pledged to try to help him.
Voters nationwide were in the mood for change, according to The AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the direction of the country.
Among those who had Trump in mind when they voted, about twice as many wanted to express opposition to him as those who wanted to support him. Most also blamed his administration for high costs: About 6 in 10 said higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies.”
After a decisive victory, the burden will soon be on Democrats to prove they can govern effectively.
The party has pledged to investigate Trump but will have to navigate calls to also impeach him, which could drain valuable time. At the same time, there will also be pressure to prove they can pass significant legislation to address healthcare, high prices and measures to rein in presidential power.
“We have to deliver for the American people on getting costs down,” said Jared Moskowitz, a Florida Democrat who won reelection to a House seat that Republicans sought to redraw in their favor. “That is the mandate” for Democrats on Capitol Hill.
Asked what happens should the president simply veto Democratic legislation, Moskowitz said: “Let him do that. Let him still tell the American people affordability is a hoax.”
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Associated Press writer Bill Barrow contributed to this report.
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Editor’s Note: Steven Sloan has covered politics for The Associated Press since 2018.
