AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Maryland’s state primary

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore seeks the Democratic nomination for a second term in Tuesday’s primary for federal, state and local offices. Among the other top races on the ballot are two Democratic congressional primaries: one where two dozen hopefuls look to succeed a longtime congressional leader and another where a Democratic incumbent faces a tough challenge from her wealthy predecessor.

The 2026 midterm contests in Maryland take place under the shadow of the 2028 elections. Moore is running for reelection amid speculation that he also has his eye on a possible presidential campaign. Meanwhile, the contested primaries in all eight of Maryland’s congressional districts could be the last held under the current set of boundaries, as state lawmakers consider entering the national mid-decade redistricting fray with a map that could eliminate the state’s lone Republican congressional seat in time for the 2028 elections.

At the top of the ballot, Moore and Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller face a primary challenge from Eric Felber and his running mate, LaTrece Hawkins Lytes. In Maryland, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run on the same ticket. Felber is a physician who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin in the 8th Congressional District primary in 2024.

The Democratic ticket will face the winners of a nine-way Republican primary field that includes former state Del. Dan Cox and his running mate, Rob Krop. Cox lost to Moore in the 2022 general election for governor and ran unsuccessfully in 2024 for the 6th Congressional District Republican nomination.

In the 5th Congressional District, 24 contenders seek the Democratic nomination to replace former Democratic House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who is retiring after 23 terms. Among those running are former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, health care business executive Quincy Bareebe, Prince George’s County state Del. Adrian Boafo, Prince George’s County Councilwoman Wala Blegay and former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn.

Bareebe led the field in fundraising as of early June, followed by Dunn. Boafo has endorsements from Hoyer, Moore and Democratic Sen. Angela Alsobrooks.

Dunn served at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, when rioters supporting President Donald Trump attacked the complex in an attempt to block certification of his 2020 presidential election defeat. Dunn ran in the 3rd Congressional District in 2024, placing second in the 22-candidate Democratic primary.

The district includes all of Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s County in southern Maryland, but the bulk of voters come from parts of Anne Arundel County and heavily Democratic Prince George’s County.

U.S. Rep. April McClain Delaney seeks a second term in the 6th Congressional District but first must clear a strong Democratic primary challenge from the man she replaced, former U.S. Rep. David Trone, who has loaned his campaign $25 million from his personal fortune. Trone gave up the seat for an unsuccessful 2024 U.S. Senate primary bid where he spent $63 million of his own money to place second behind Alsobrooks, who went on to win the seat.

A majority of voters in the 6th District come from Democratic leaning Frederick County and heavily Democratic Montgomery County, but the district also includes all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties in heavily Republican western Maryland.

Moore and his allies in the state Legislature attempted to redraw the state’s congressional districts in response to new Trump-backed maps in several Republican-controlled states, but the measure was blocked in mid-April by Democratic state Senate President Bill Ferguson, who said the plan put existing Democratic seats at risk.

But in the wake of an April U.S. Supreme Court decision that prompted some Republican-controlled southern states to eliminate several Democratic-held majority-Black districts, Ferguson said in a statement that “Maryland must respond as the ground shifts under us.” The Legislature may take up the measure again ahead of the 2028 election in the form of a state constitutional amendment that could go before voters as early as November.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, U.S. House, state Senate, state House and local offices in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Frederick, Harford, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.

Who gets to vote?

Voters registered with a political party may participate only in their own party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

How many voters are there?

As of May 31, there were about 4.6 million registered voters in Maryland. That includes about 2.2 million active registered Democrats, about 1 million active registered Republicans and about 1 million active voters not affiliated with any party. There are an additional 250,000 inactive registered voters that the state does not break down by party.

How many people actually vote?

About 671,000 registered Democrats and about 295,000 registered Republicans cast ballots in the 2022 primaries for governor. That was about 16% and 7% of registered voters at the time.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 60% of Democratic primary votes and about 37% of Republican primary votes in the 2022 primaries were cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Wednesday, about 228,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 67,000 Republican primary ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

The first vote reports of the night tend to be from early voting and mail ballots cast before Election Day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 8:42 p.m. ET, or 42 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 4:15 a.m. ET with about 56% of total votes counted.

In Montgomery and Prince George’s counties, the two most populous in the state, the first votes were reported at 9:05 p.m. ET. The last election night update from Montgomery County was at 2:25 a.m. ET with about half the vote counted and from Prince George’s at 3:05 p.m. ET with about 59% counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Recounts in Maryland are not automatic. A losing candidate may request and pay for a recount if the vote margin between the top two candidates is 5% or less of the total votes cast for those two candidates. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 133 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.