As Democrats prepare for a possible federal shutdown, their endgame is uncertain

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats who have struggled for months to counter President Donald Trump have settled on a bold, one-step strategy if they do not get significant concessions on health care before government funding runs out Wednesday: voting to shut down the government.

The plan is heartily endorsed by many frustrated voters in the base and party activists, some of whom called on Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York to resign in March after he provided support for Republicans to keep the government open at that time.

“America’s ability to endure this moment requires a Democratic Party driving a vibrant, impactful and public resistance,” Katie Bethell, executive director of liberal grassroots group MoveOn, wrote in a letter to party leaders.

Less clear is what’s in the minority party’s playbook after 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday, when the shutdown would start and the administration could begin laying off hundreds or even thousands of federal workers, if it carries through with plans laid out by the White House this week.

How does it all end? And what do Democrats do then?

Betting on who will take the blame

Publicly, Democrats say they believe Trump and Republicans will bear the blame if there is a shutdown and that they eventually would be forced to negotiate a compromise. That is a risky bet.

Republicans hold the majority in both the House and Senate and have shown no signs of relenting as Democrats insist on an immediate extension of health care benefits that expire at the end of the year, among other demands.

Democrats have also adopted a somewhat resigned view of the choice ahead.

The country “will get worse with or without” a shutdown, Schumer said this month. “Because Trump is lawless.” It’s an uncertain endgame and an about-face for Democrats who in the past have strenuously opposed shutdowns that were instigated by Republicans.

An extended shutdown with mass firings of federal workers would be a major escalation in the annual spending battles between the two parties. The threat of government closure — and the potential political ramifications — has generally scared both sides enough to bring everyone to the negotiating table, eventually.

“Funding the government is a Democrat equity, at least it always has been,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., who has declined to negotiate with Democrats unless they help pass the seven-week extension of government funding that has cleared the House. “And here they are steering us off that cliff.”

The most recent shutdown — the nation’s longest — was in the winter of 2018-19, when Trump was insisting on federal dollars to build the U.S.-Mexico border wall during his first term. It ended when he backed down after 35 days.

A role reversal for Democrats

Schumer says things have changed since his March vote to help fund the government through the summer.

Republicans passed a massive tax bill that cut Medicaid spending, and Trump has repeatedlyblocked federal spending that was previously approved by Congress. Democrats say Republicans have not reached out to negotiate, and they criticized Trump for canceling a White House meeting with Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

“This president is just — he’s not up to being president if he can’t sit down and negotiate with the two Democratic leaders,” Schumer said on PBS’ “News Hour” this week.

Jeffries said Friday that Democrats are “not going to go along to get along.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., “has my number. John Thune has my number,” he said. “The White House knows how to reach out.”

Most Senate Democrats have held together in threatening a shutdown, but it is possible that some in the caucus will vote to keep the government open or try to strike a deal when the deadline arrives.

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., voted with Republicans in a test vote, and nine other Democrats voted with Schumer and Republicans on the March resolution. Republicans would need at least six additional Democrats, potentially more, to reach the necessary 60 votes for passage.

Schumer has a lot to lose either way, after taking a political thumping from liberal groups, and many voters, in the spring.

For the left, it’s time to fight

A groundswell of angst and frustration has been simmering for months among the Democratic base, driven by Republicans’ tightening grip on Washington and a growing perception that the Democratic Party is too weak to fight back. Now, with federal closures looming, many activists and lawmakers see a rare point of leverage and a chance to recast the party’s image with voters.

“It would be naive to suggest that all the trust that Democratic elected officials have lost and squandered with their base voters can be regained in one moment or one fight,” said Joel Payne, chief of communications for MoveOn. “But I think it will go a long way to really start to reverse that relationship.”

Sydney Register of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee said Democrats cannot afford to yield again even if that means the administration carries out mass federal layoffs.

Register said that voting with Republicans was like giving “the schoolyard bully their lunch money.”

“I want to see them hold on to their lunch money, because all the bully is going to do is try to keep stealing from you,” she said.

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., made a similar analogy about Trump and Democratic efforts to extend the expanded health care subsidies, which expire Jan. 1. Some Republicans support the extension, but Trump and GOP leaders have said that is a fight for later in the year. Democrats say the time for action is now.

“I’m not afraid of (Trump), I’m not afraid of his threats, and I know that this is going to be a tough fight and an ugly fight,” Booker said this month. “But this is one fight worth having, and that’s where I stand.”

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Associated Press writers Bill Barrow in Atlanta and Joey Cappelletti and Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.