Democrats eye Wisconsin Republican incumbent as congressional map expands in hopes of a blue wave

RACINE, Wis. (AP) — Mitchell Berman knows voters are angry. It’s the Democrat’s best hope of defeating Rep. Bryan Steil in a Wisconsin district that Republicans have held for more than 30 years.

“I know what it’s like to struggle,” Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, told The Associated Press. “Folks are really looking for someone that they can turn to and say, ‘That guy’s walked a mile in my shoes.’”

Democrats see his race as one that could break their way if the blue wave they’re working toward turns into a tsunami. And while there are signs that Republicans may be getting nervous, officials from both parties said it will be difficult for the newcomer to upset the better-known incumbent.

Berman, like other Democratic challengers across the country, is trying to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s sagging approval rating fueled by anger over the economy, increases in healthcare costs and high gas prices caused by the war in Iran.

“Everybody’s ready for a change,” said John Pintar, a 68-year-old retired heavy-machine operator from Caledonia who went to a Racine coffee shop to hear Berman make his pitch last week. “I certainly am.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced in September that it was adding Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District to its “red to blue” program that targets Republican incumbents viewed as vulnerable. The designation frees up resources and fundraising for Berman in a boost to his underdog chances.

Steil, who worked as an attorney for a plastics manufacturer before being elected to Congress, downplayed being targeted as he seeks a fifth term.

“We’ve shown time and again our ability to go out, get out above the noise, speak directly to voters,” he told the AP. “And in the end, we’ve been successful.”

No Going Back PAC, a Trump-aligned group, has spent about $90,000 on mailings in Steil’s district.

Nationwide, No Going Back PAC and another Trump-aligned group, Safety and Affordability PAC, have spent more than $84 million on advertising in House races since Sept. 1, according to an AP analysis of data from AdImpact, which tracks media spending and ad buys. A third group, MAGA Inc., did not spend on House races.

The vast majority of the groups’ ad spending, 96%, has been in House districts Trump carried in 2024, which the AP determined by using precinct-level results to map to the new district boundaries some states have adopted. Only $3.5 million was spent on districts won by Democrat Kamala Harris.

The cash flow shows how Republicans have been on defense this year, but the party’s deep pockets could help insulate its members.

Steil and groups supporting him have outspent Berman and his backers by a 2-1 ratio, according to AdImpact data. He had $6.3 million cash on hand entering August, compared with just under $152,000 for Berman, based on federal filings.

Peter Barca was the last Democrat to hold the seat, from 1993 to 1995, and he lost a comeback attempt against Steil in 2024. He said Berman may still succeed despite being outspent.

“When the wave’s big enough, that will save you,” Barca said.

Wisconsin district once served by Paul Ryan has deep manufacturing ties

Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District borders Illinois to the south and Lake Michigan to the east. It includes the cities of Kenosha, Janesville and Racine, where Berman was greeting voters at a downtown coffee shop this week.

The district grew more competitive under new congressional maps enacted in 2022, but it still leans Republican. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan held the seat for 20 years before Steil, his former aide, replaced him in 2019.

The area suffered thousands of manufacturing job losses as the automobile industry collapsed and jobs were sent overseas. The General Motors plant in Janesville, which had operated for 90 years and employed 7,000 people at its height, shut down in early 2009. Other manufacturers in the area, including a vehicle assembly plant in Kenosha, also shuttered around the same time.

Berman has gone after Steil for supporting Trump’s tariffs, saying despite the president’s claims that they will bring U.S. factories “roaring back,” voters in southeast Wisconsin have yet to see any evidence of it.

Steil said he’s heard frustration from voters.

“We need to continue our work to make life more affordable,” Steil said, citing his votes in support of eliminating taxes on tips and overtime and other tax reforms.

“There’s also more work to be done,” Steil said.

Democrat tapping into voter anger and working-class background

Berman, 40, leans into his working-class background when talking to voters. He describes how he grew up in rural Wisconsin, attended public schools and was the first in his family to graduate from college.

He talks about holding his first union job and how cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs affecting the VA hospital where he worked as a nurse motivated him to run for Congress.

“We’re up against folks, like my opponent, who are too far removed from what you and I are up against every day,” Berman said to a cheering room of supporters at a coffee house this week.

In his first television ad released earlier this month, Berman is shown fishing with a holstered gun as he highlights his working-class roots and dings Steil for getting “millions from special interests.”

“I’m not looking to get rich,” Berman says. “I just want to hunt, take my daughters to Packers games and make life easier for families like mine.”

Retired probation agent Dave Carlson, 71, of Racine, said he wants Berman to pull off an upset, but he’s keeping his hopes in check.

“We’ve had other decent candidates on the Democratic side,” Carlson said, “but Steil pulls it out in the end.”

Steil has a nearly 100% voting record in line with Trump and has won all four of his races by at least 9 percentage points. Steil is also seen as a potential 2028 Senate candidate, if Republican Sen. Ron Johnson retires.

Steil demurred when asked if he thought it was an asset or a liability to be so closely tied to Trump.

“This is a contrast election between myself and my opponent, and I think my values align with southeast Wisconsin,” Steil said.

Robin Vos, the Republican speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly, who lives in the district, said he doesn’t think Berman can overcome Steil’s name recognition built over eight years in Congress.

“Starting from zero, building up against a popular incumbent congressman, is a really hard hill to climb no matter what the environment is like,” Vos said.

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Associated Press writers Aaron Kessler and Ashlyn Still contributed to this report in Washington.