Polymarket is in a high-stakes race to win back trust as it recommits to the US market

NEW YORK (AP) — After four years in exile, the prediction market platform Polymarket has begun a well-funded campaign to sell a new version of itself to the American public.

To do so, the company is trying to convince policymakers, regulators, the public and prospective customers that the business it is building onshore is a more disciplined operation than the freewheeling offshore exchange that has at times been the subject of unfavorable headlines.

Polymarket has hired social media influencers to produce viral marketing on TikTok and other platforms. Its account on X, formerly known as Twitter, is now followed by millions and posts about current events throughout the day. It has signed partnership deals with major sports teams and Major League Baseball, as well as news organizations ranging from CNBC to CNN. All as part of a pitch that its real-time markets are a more accurate read on the future than traditional polling or punditry.

The full-throated campaign is to, effectively sell Polymarket as not the Polymarket as people know it today.

What the American public knows as Polymarket has, at least by the letter of the law, been unavailable to Americans. In 2022, it was pushed offshore after settling federal charges that it operated an unregistered derivatives market. But Americans have regularly found ways around the prohibition, and the offshore business faced criticism over allegations of insider trading and allowing wagers tied to war and other violence.

Polymarket began operating again in the U.S. at the end of 2025 after buying the derivatives exchange QCEX to get the regulatory license to operate in the country. Executives say the U.S. exchange is walled off from the international platform, and they have hired a slate of compliance, surveillance and regulatory specialists in recent weeks to keep it that way.

“Trust is the product we are building here,” said Dan Lee, head of U.S. operations at Polymarket, in an interview. Lee started with Polymarket in February from Coinbase.

Among the hires, the company added Megan McGrath from Robinhood as its new chief compliance officer. Lee and another executive, Natalie Oblazny, were hired from Coinbase. It’s also hired former Department of Justice and FBI officials as the platform’s head of enforcement and new surveillance head. Lee said Polymarket’s successful reentry into the U.S. is almost entirely leveraged on whether it can convince people that Polymarket U.S. can be a trusted prediction market platform, and the new hires are key to that effort.

Both Polymarket International and Polymarket U.S. provide the same service: trading on the likelihood of events, such as weather, sports, politics or news. But the underlying structures differ. Polymarket’s international platform is built on blockchain technology and requires users to trade with cryptocurrency, while Polymarket U.S. operates through a more centralized, CFTC-regulated structure funded with traditional U.S. dollars.

Customers using Polymarket U.S. versus Polymarket International won’t notice the difference, with the exception of how they fund their accounts. Also Polymarket U.S. is going to have a much narrower number of contracts, and more regulations, than its international counterpart.

“Polymarket U.S. is supposed to comply with U.S. law and regulations. Polymarket international is where anything goes,” said Todd Phillips, who has written extensively on prediction markets at the Roosevelt Institute.

The stakes are high for Polymarket. Between its departure in 2022 and return six months ago, the prediction market industry has changed and grown in popularity. The trading volume across the platforms for Polymarket and rival Kalshi is now $26.6 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Dune. That’s up from $9.75 billion in volume across the platforms in October last year. About two-thirds of that activity is on Kalshi, which dominates the U.S. market on the strength of sports wagering. Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in its most recent funding round.

Both platforms are also benefiting from a more favorable treatment of the industry in Washington. The Trump Administration has been generally supportive of prediction markets. The CFTC has sued states to argue that federal law should preempt any regulations that state politicians have wanted to place on the prediction market industry. The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is also an investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital.

Even so, it’s been a rough start for Polymarket’s reintroduction to American audiences. The Wall Street Journal found evidence that Polymarket’s advertising and marketing campaigns used allegedly deceptive strategies that showed hired influencers making money trading on Polymarket when the trades were fake.

Politico reported in June that a Polymarket executive paid at least 20 political content creators, many of which did not disclose those partnerships to the public. Both projects have been part of the campaign Polymarket was using to reintroduce to American audiences.

In response to the WSJ and Politico reports, the company says it is investigating its marketing and promotional campaigns.

Whether Polymarket U.S. will be able to differentiate itself from its international counterpart is too soon to tell. Polymarket’s international platform has made headlines, often to public and political outrage.

When a U.S. Army sergeant was indicted earlier this year over bets on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, he was trading on Polymarket’s international platform. The Associated Press reported in April that 50 brand new accounts on Polymarket’s international platform placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the hours, even minutes, before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on social media, raising concerns of insider trading.

Lee said he believes the steps the U.S. business is taking will help further legitimize it, despite the issues the international platform has faced.

“I think having the international business being the bulk of the volume, it often sorts of masks the progress we are making here in the U.S. to broaden Polymarket’s acceptance,” Lee said.