Scientists call another near-record hot year a ‘warning shot’ of a shifting, dangerous climate

WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth’s average temperature last year hovered among one of the three hottest on record, while the past three years indicate that warming could be speeding up, international climate monitoring teams reported.

Six science teams calculated that 2025 was behind 2024 and 2023, while two other groups — NASA and a joint American and British team — said 2025 was slightly warmer than 2023. World Meteorological Organization, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials said 2023 and 2025 temperatures were so close — .02 degrees Celsius (.04 degrees Fahrenheit) apart — that it’s pretty much a tie.

Last year’s average global temperature was 15.08 degrees Celsius (59.14 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 1.44 degrees Celsius (2.59 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial time, the World Meteorological Organization calculated, averaging out the eight data sets. The temperature data used by most of the teams goes back to 1850.

All of the last three years flirted close to the internationally agreed-upon limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since the mid 19th century. That goal for limiting temperature increases, established in Paris in 2015, is likely to be breached by the end of this decade, the scientists said.

When charted on a graph, 2023, 2024 and 2025 “seemed to jump up,” said NOAA climate monitoring chief Russ Vose. When averaged together, those three years shoot above the 1.5-degree mark, according to the European climate service Copernicus.

Rising global temperatures intensify heat waves and other extreme weather, endangering people and causing billions of dollars in damage. The weather monitoring teams warn that the 2025 temperature increase is a dangerous sign of worsening storms, heat, floods and fires.

Earth is warming at a faster rate

The last 11 years have been the hottest 11 years on record, the climate monitoring groups found.

“The last three years are indicative of an acceleration in the warming. They’re not consistent with the linear trend that we’ve been observing for the 50 years before that,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist at the Berkeley Earth monitoring group.

While Rohde said nearly all of the warming is from human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, the past three years’ temperatures had a boost from a combination of less soot pollution from ships that normally has a cooling effect, peak solar activity and perhaps a 2022 underwater volcano eruption.

Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead of the Copernicus service, said the overwhelming culprit is clear: the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

“Climate change is happening. It’s here. It’s impacting everyone all around the world and it’s our fault,” Burgess told The Associated Press.

Three teams — including NOAA and NASA — reported their data Wednesday, while the other teams released their information late Tuesday. Copernicus and Japan use a combination of satellite data and computer simulations, while the rest of the groups use ground and sea observations. The eight data sets were within less than a tenth of a degree apart.

Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, who was not part of any of the teams, called what’s happening “another warning shot” of a shifting climate “where record/near-record global temperatures are the norm, not the exception.”

Higher temperatures endanger people

Burgess noted numerous heat waves in 2025 that broke local or national temperature records, also having significant affects on people’s bodies.

“When we look at a warmer world, we know that extreme events become more frequent and more intense,” Burgess said, mentioning 2025’s Los Angeles wildfires. “When we have severe storms or a flooding events, the rain is more intense.”

Berkeley Earth calculated that 770 million people — one out of every 12 people on the planet — experienced record annual heat, with 450 million of them in China. Other record hot spots included much of Australia, northern Africa, the Arabian peninsula and Antarctica, according to Copernicus. The continental United States had its fourth warmest year on record, NOAA found.

One major natural factor in global temperatures is the El Nino/La Nina oscillation — a cyclic warming or cooling of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather across much of the planet. Usually a warm El Nino spikes temperatures and its cool La Nina flip side depresses temperatures.

Last year there were two weak, cool La Ninas so there was a “big part of the surface of the Earth that’s a little cooler than it otherwise would be and that’s probably gonna tuck a little temperature down just a little bit,” NOAA’s Vose said.

An even warmer future waits

Some forecasts have an El Nino developing this year, but it’s still murky, meteorologists said. Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus’ climate service, said that when the next El Nino materializes, which he expects within the next couple of years, it will likely drive another record annual temperature.

Several of the climate monitoring groups are predicting that 2026 will be about as hot as 2025.

Looking ahead, both Copernicus and Berkeley Earth calculated that 2029 is the likely date that the planet’s long-term average will breach the 1.5 degree threshold.

“In a decade’s time when we’re in the 2030s … the number of extreme events around the world will increase. The cost associated with the damages and impacts of those extreme events will be worse,” Burgess said. “And we will look back to the mild climate of the mid 2020s with nostalgia.”

___

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.