UN forecasts global economic growth of 2.7% this year, down slightly from 2025

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United Nations is forecasting that the global economy will grow by 2.7% this year, slightly lower than last year’s estimate, citing the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

U.N. economists predicted that growth would edge up to 2.9% in 2027. That’s still well below the average 3.2% growth between 2010 and 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hurt economies around the globe. The estimate for 2025 is 2.8%.

“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Thursday in a statement, “generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities.”

But the U.N. economists said there was “unexpected resilience” to the sharp increases in U.S. tariffs last year. This was supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, which helped sustain growth, but they cautioned that underlying weaknesses persist.

According to the U.N.’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report, growth in Europe, Japan and the United States is projected to hold broadly steady.

In the United States, the U.N. said growth declined from 2.8% in 2024 to an estimated 1.9% in 2025, “as strong consumer spending and AI-related investment were partly offset by weak residential and commercial construction.”

The U.N. projected a very small rise in U.S. economic growth this year to 2%, and it forecast that growth will edge up to 2.2% in 2027.

Japan’s economy is forecast to grow by 0.9% this year and by 1% in 2027 — below the 1.2% growth estimated for 2025, the U.N. said.

“Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, while exports — particularly of automobiles — will likely remain constrained by higher United States tariffs and policy uncertainty,” the economists said of Japan.

The European Union’s economic growth is forecast to decline from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026 “as higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports,” the report said. But it projected growth will increase to 1.6% in 2027.

On a more positive note, the U.N. said some large developing economies, including China, India and Indonesia, are expected to continue to see solid growth.

Prospects for many low-income and vulnerable countries are expected to remain less favorable, the economists said, though they projected growth in the world’s least developed countries will rise from an estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. They singled out stronger economic performances in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

In East Asia, the U.N. said, economic growth is projected at 4.4% this year, down from 4.9% last year. China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, below the estimated 4.9% expansion in 2025.

“A temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States — including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce — has helped stabilize confidence,” it said.

In Africa, modest economic growth is projected, from an estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, the report said. “However, high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks,” it said.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, while “the outlook remains broadly resilient,” growth is projected to decline slightly from an estimated 2.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 before edging up to 2.5% in 2027.